We conducted a retrospective exploratory study to assess the association between chronic dysglycemia, determined by assessment of HbA1c and diabetes history, and respiratory failure in hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. We found that prediabetes, unknown diabetes and uncontrolled diabetes were independently associated with increased risk of developing respiratory failure associated with SARS-CoV-2. In contrast, we found no significant association between well-controlled diabetes and risk of SARS-CoV-2 disease progression.
Relationship with previous studies
The most common co-morbidities for patients with Covid-19 observed in this study (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and cardiac diseases) are in line with previously published studies [1, 3, 11, 12]. As evidence relating to Covid-19 and diabetes mellitus continues to emerge, people with diabetes have been identified as being at increased risk of serious Covid-19. The majority of the literature regarding diabetes and Covid-19 is reported without any differentiation between the two major types of diabetes but refers mostly to diabetes mellitus type 2. Barron et. al. found an association between diabetes mellitus type 1 and poor Covid-19 outcome. However, the patients at particular risk were older and burdened with co-morbidities [13]. In opposition, our study included only 12 patients with diabetes mellitus type 1and just one of them, a patient on immunosuppressive therapy, needed ICU-admission and mechanic ventilation (data not shown). The different pathophysiologic processes underlying the metabolic disturbances in diabetes mellitus type 1 and type 2 warrants further investigation by diabetes type and Covid-19 status. In addition, only a few studies have considered patients with previously unknown chronic dysglycemia or different levels of premorbid glycemic control among those individuals with an established diabetes diagnosis.
Congruent with other recent papers, we found a high incidence of prediabetes (HbA1c 42–48 mmol/mol) or diabetes (HbA1c > 48 mmol/mol) in patients severe Covid-19 [14–16]. In our study, prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes as well as a poor glycemic control in patients with known diabetes mellitus constituted 74% of the patients with respiratory failure. In the same group, patients with respiratory failure, 62.5% of the patients were admitted to the ICU, of whom 61% were mechanically ventilated and 14% were supported with renal replacement therapy, indicating a severe course of the infection. Interestingly, our finding that normal glycemic status or well controlled diabetes in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 was not associated with respiratory failure is supported by results from Smith et al. In a single-center study, they found an association between dysregulated glucose metabolism and severe Covid-19 [6].
Although patients with diseases constituting the metabolic syndrome are at high risk for severe Covid-19, the link between SARS-CoV-2 and dysglycemia is not yet fully understood. Susceptibility to infection and a dysregulated immune response caused by diabetes [17], viral induced insulin resistance [18] or a direct virus-induced damage to endocrine cells of pancreas [19] have all been proposed to contribute to the increased disease severity observed in these patients when infected with SARS-CoV-2. Another possible link could be the entry point for the virus, the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor [20]. After entering the cells, SARS-CoV-2 has been proposed to downregulate ACE2 creating an imbalance of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone hormonal system (RAAS) with increased angiotensin II levels. Insulin resistance, a central component in the pathophysiology of the metabolic syndrome [21], has already been linked to an inappropriately overactive RAAS in several studies. In these studies, blocking RAAS in subjects with hypertension and/or cardiovascular disease improved insulin sensitivity and reduced incidence of new onset diabetes mellitus type 2 [22]. HbA1c elevation observed in the majority of patients in this study with severe Covid-19 is likely to reflect a chronic underlying metabolic imbalance and may in part explain these patient´s vulnerability when infected with SARS-CoV-2. Pulmonary and systemic hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, insulin resistance, kidney failure and thromboembolic events are clinical features common to both severe COVID-19 infection and in metabolic syndrome. Although occurring over very different times perspectives; developing rapidly over days or weeks in COVID-19 but over a period of years in metabolic syndrome. Thus, one possible link between metabolic imbalance and SARS-CoV-2 could be that when a person with latent chronic metabolic imbalance gets infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus degrades ACE2, RAAS overactivation increases and the process of metabolic syndrome may accelerate, generating an acute on chronic metabolic syndrome situation. This is supported by a recent review demonstrating that RAAS-blockers may be protective for Covid-19 patients with hypertension. Furthermore, it may indicate that patients with underdiagnosed or undertreated diseases of the metabolic syndrome may be at risk for severe Covid-19 [23].
Study implications
Our findings imply that identification of patients with chronic dysglycemia and quantification of their premorbid control is important as patients with undiagnosed dysglycemia or poor diabetes control are at particular risk of developing respiratory complications when infected with SARS-CoV- 2. Our findings also imply that that HbA1c measurement identifies a significant proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients with prediabetes or previously unknown diabetes.
Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, it was noted that patients with obesity were at higher risk for severe Covid-19 [3, 24]. In the present study, we demonstrate that HbA1c seems to be another valuable marker for identifying patients at risk of severe Covid-19. Early identification of patients at risk for severe Covid-19 through a HbA1c test may prevent a severe course of the disease by targeted vaccination or by early specific treatment. Moreover, long term measures should of cause be taken to improve the metabolic status of the patients, in parallel with vaccination and treatment of covid-19.
Strengths and limitations
Our study has several strengths. We assess the impact of prediabetes and unknown diabetes on the risk of developing severe Covid-19. By comprehensive review of medical records, we were able to make a detailed assessment of several components of the metabolic syndrome and a thoroughly evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 infected patient at risk for Covid-19 disease, reducing the risk for misclassification.
Our study has some limitations. HbA1c was not consecutively analyzed in all patients admitted to our hospital, which implies a risk of selection bias. Furthermore, we lack data of blood transfusion prior to HbA1c testing, which could display false low values of the test. Moreover, detailed data regarding respiratory failure using results of blood gas analysis and level of supplementary oxygen were not available in all patients. Additionally, the confidences intervals in our analyses of chronic dysglycemia and HbA1c were wide. However, the point estimates for prediabetes, unknown diabetes and uncontrolled diabetes were high indicating that a type I error is unlikely. Although rather well accounted for, residual confounding can never be completely ruled out in this study design. Finally, the single center design limits generalizability.