Study Area:
Portugal is a highly diverse and heterogeneous country with two main distinct environmental regions, north and south of the Tagus River (Fig. 1). This division is based on these regions’ distinct climatic and orographic characteristics. The climate in both regions is mainly Mediterranean, characterized by hot dry summers and cold wet winters, with the northern region presenting, in general, a strong Atlantic influence (with some exceptions near the border with Spain), with higher precipitation levels, but lower temperatures than the southern region, which presents a stronger Continental influence (Hijmans et al. 2005; Loidi 2017). Also, the north region of the Tagus River presents a more mountainous terrain and a denser and longer hydrographic network. At the same time, the south is dominated by plains irrigated by a more scattered and smaller hydrographic network, often composed of intermittent streams (SNIRH 2015). The northern region of the Tagus River is more urbanized, with a denser road network and higher population density (Alves et al. 2009). Large cultivated areas, and Eucalyptus spp. and Pinus spp. monocultures mixed with several patches of broadleaves forests and shrublands dominate this region. On the other hand, the south is dominated by shrublands and Quercus spp. agroforestry systems (Álvares et al. 2019) - “montado”, a typical Portuguese multifunctional agroforestry system (Pinto-Correia et al. 2004).
Data Collection and Tested Environmental Drivers:
Our dataset consisted of red fox records from camera traps collected from different ongoing projects and implemented at a broad scale from north to south Portugal. Hence, red fox records were collected in a wide variety of land covers, areas with distinct management schemes (e.g., forestry plantations, game reserves, and protected areas), and ecoregions within both regions (Online Resource 1). The camera trap survey designs varied for each project due to differences in objectives, implementation years (2019 to 2021), seasons (wet and dry), and sampling effort. These variations were based on project-specific constraints such as logistics and objectives (Online Resource 1).
To match the environmental division of this study, camera locations were divided into two regions (north and south) according to their location relative to Tagus River (Fig. 1): 37 sampling areas located on the north of the Tejo River (N camera traps = 765), and eight on the south (N camera traps = 190) (Fig. 1). Cameras were set at a minimum of 40cm from the soil, attached to tree or wooden poles, without the use of bait, and spaced at least 1 km apart from the nearest one. Each camera site was characterized according to several bio-environmental features (Table 1), whose data were collected remotely using the QGIS software version 3.26.3 (QGIS Development Team 2022), unless stated otherwise: ecoregions, climate, landscape composition and structure, anthropogenic disturbance, and biotic interactions (e.g., competition and predation).
Table 1
Explanatory variables used for modelling red fox detectability and occupancy patterns
Hypothesis | Variables Description/Code | Data Source | Prediction |
Detection (p) | Season when the camera was active (dry or wet). (Season) Habitat of the exact location of the camera. (Habitat_COS) Number of distinct habitats edges in relation to the buffer* area. (Edge_Density) Shannon Diversity Index of habitats inside buffer*. (Shannon_Index) Relative Abundance Index of rabbits (proxy for red fox’s prey). (RAI_Rabbit) Relative Abundance Index of dogs. (RAI_Dogs) | Study’s dataset Land use and land cover map of continental Portugal – COS2018 (DGT, 2018) Land use and land cover map of continental Portugal – COS2018 (DGT, 2018) Study’s dataset estimation Study’s dataset estimation Study’s dataset estimation | We predicted the dry season would have a positive influence on red fox detectability due to juvenile dispersion (Sillero-Zubiri et al. 2004). We expected forested habitats to have a negative influence on red fox detection probability due to camera obstructions (Cruz et al. 2015). We hypothesized that a higher habitat fragmentation would negatively affect red fox detection probability (Cruz et al. 2015). We believed a higher habitat diversity would have a positive effect on red fox detectability because it is easier to find animals trails to install cameras and optimize detectability (Cruz et al. 2015). We hypothesized a higher abundance of prey would increase red fox detectability (Litvaitis et al. 1986; Carbone and Gittleman, 2002; Hetherington and Gorman 2007; Sarmento et al. 2011). We expected a higher abundance of dogs to negatively affect red fox detection probability (Farris et al., 2016; Murphy et al., 2019). |
H1: Ecoregions | Ecoregion Classification according to Olson et al (2001). (Abbreviation_Ecorregion) | The Nature Conservancy. (2009). Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World. https://geospatial.tnc.org/datasets/b1636d640ede4d6ca8f5e369f2dc368b/about | More forested ecoregions will have a positive influence on red fox occurrence (Olson et al. 2001). |
H2: Interspecific Interactions | Presence/absence of Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) on cameras within each five occasions. (Egyptian_M_P_A) Presence/absence of wolf in each study area. (Wolf_P_A) Relative Abundance Index of rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a proxy for red fox’s prey. (RAI_Rabbit) | Study’s dataset Álvares et al (2019) Atlas de Mamíferos de Portugal Study’s dataset estimation | Red fox is less likely to occupy areas with greater presence of a competitor (Egyptian mongoose) (Bandeira et al. 2018; Jiménez et al. 2019; Sarmento et al. 2021; Castañeda et al. 2022) or a predator (wolf) (Petroelje et al. 2022), but more likely to occupy areas with higher density of preys (rabbits) (Litvaitis et al. 1986; Carbone and Gittleman, 2002; Hetherington and Gorman 2007; Sarmento et al. 2011). |
H3: Habitat | Habitat of the exact location of the camera. (Habitat_COS) Number of distinct habitats edges in relation to the buffer* area. (Edge_Density) Shannon Diversity Index of habitats inside buffer*. (Shannon_Index) | Land use and land cover map of continental Portugal – COS2018 (DGT, 2018) Land use and land cover map of continental Portugal – COS2018 (DGT, 2018) Study’s Dataset estimation | Red fox occupancy probability would increase in landscapes with more natural, less fragmentated, and diverse habitats (Rosalino et al. 2010; Sarmento et al. 2011; Pereira et al. 2012; Alexandre et al. 2020; Linck et al. 2023). |
H4: Climatic Factors | Season when the camera was active (dry or wet). (Season) Annual Temperature at camera location. (Annual_Mean_Temp) Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month at camera location. (MinTempColM) Maximum Temperature of Warmest Month at camera location. (MaxTempWarmM) Annual Precipitation at camera location. (Annual_Pre) Precipitation of Driest Month at camera location. (PreDryM) Precipitation of Wettest Month at camera location. (PreRainM) | Study’s dataset Fick and Hijmans (2017) | Seasonality, precipitation, and temperature may affect red fox’s occupancy due to changes in resource availability throughout the year (Vilella et al. 2020; Linck et al. 2021; Castañeda et al. 2022). Therefore, red fox occupancy would decrease during the dry season because the restriction of food resources available to specific patches; and challenging weather conditions (extreme temperatures) may restrain foxes’ movements (Santos et al. 2011; Shamoon et al. 2017; Teixeira et al. 2023a). |
H5: Human Disturbance | Relative Abundance Index of dogs. (RAI_Dogs) Human Footprint Index at camera location. (HFI) Distance from camera location to the nearest urban area. (Dist_Urb) Distance from camera location to the nearest road. (Dist_Roads) | Study’s dataset estimation Socioeconomic Data and Applications Centre SEDAC, NASA (https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu) Land use and landcover map of continental Portugal – COS2018 (DGT, 2018) Land use and landcover map of continental Portugal – COS2018 (DGT, 2018) | Red foxes are less likely to occupy areas where domestic dogs are more abundant (Farris et al. 2016; Murphy et al. 2019). A high Human Footprint Index and a shorter distance to urban areas would decrease occupancy probability of red fox (Hewison et al. 2001; Sillero-Zubiri et al. 2004). Areas closer to roads may be avoided due to a higher chance of vehicle collision, which may constrain red fox occupancy (Sillero-Zubiri et al. 2004; Van Der Ree et al. 2011; Torres et al. 2014). |
*200 meters radius buffer |
We tested the influence of ecoregions in red fox occupancy based on the ecoregion classification proposed by Olson et al. (2001). Ecoregions data for each sampling point were gathered from The Nature Conservancy Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World database (2009) (Table 1), by overlaying the location of each camera-trap with the ecoregion shapefile layer. All ecoregions whose range overlapped the territory of continental Portugal (Cantabrian Mixed Forests, Iberian Sclerophyllous and Semi-Deciduous Forests, Northwest Iberian Montane Forests, and Southwest Iberian Mediterranean Sclerophyllous and Mixed Forests) were included in the dataset.
Mammals’ occupancy and activity patterns may be shaped by climatic factors such as seasonality and temperature variations (Vilella et al. 2020; Linck et al. 2021; Ares-Pereira et al. 2022). To assess the influence of weather conditions on red fox occurrence, we collected data from Fick and Hijimas (2017). Each camera trap site was characterized according to annual mean temperature, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of coldest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest month, and precipitation of driest month. We also considered the season when the data was collected – wet (November to April) or dry (from May to October) (Table 1). When cameras were active between seasons (e.g., between April – May and October-November), the month in which the camera was active during more days was considered as the predominant season.
Landscape composition and structure (i.e. habitat type, heterogeneity, and diversity) may directly influence the species' ecological dynamics, as it drives the variety and abundance of available resources, which can shape the spatial ecology of individuals (Rosalino et al. 2010; Verdade et al. 2011). Furthermore, different landscapes can also provide a variety of protection conditions against predation risks, disturbance factors, and adverse weather conditions (Sarmento et al. 2011; Pereira et al. 2012; Cruz et al. 2015; Alexandre et al. 2020). The dominant land cover types in each sample point were collected from the Land Use Map of Continental Portugal for 2018 - COS2018 (DGT 2018) (Table 1). We grouped the available land cover types into the following categories, according to their structure and broad land use characteristics: agriculture lands, Pinus spp., and Eucalyptus spp. stands, deciduous forests, pastures, shrublands, areas with sparse vegetation, agroforests, and other less represented habitats. To estimate habitat heterogeneity and diversity, we defined a 200-meter radius buffer around each camera trap site (Castro et al. 2022) (Table 1). The buffer’s radius size corresponds approximately to the radius of a theoretical circular red fox core area, estimated for Mediterranean areas (i.e., 0.11 km2; Cavallini 1996; Pandolfi et al. 1997).
Anthropogenic disturbance, and especially human activities, have been increasingly altering natural habitats, shaping how species use the landscape (Pereira et al. 2012; Cruz et al. 2015; Ares-Pereira et al. 2022; Linck et al. 2023). A denser human population, road network, and the development/expansion of more urban centers represent great disturbance factors for wildlife, as they reduce habitat quantity and quality and increase noise pollution, artificial lighting, edge effect, and collision risks (Hewison et al. 2001; Sillero-Zubiri et al. 2004; Van Der Ree et al. 2011; McClure et al. 2013; Torres et al. 2014). To incorporate disturbance risk into the analysis, we measured the distance from each camera site to the nearest road and the nearest urban area based on the Land Use Map of Continental Portugal for 2018 - COS2018 (DGT 2018). We also used the Human Footprint Index (HFI- Venter et al. 2016) as a surrogate of humans’ impact on the environment, by overlapping the map from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Centre (SEDAC) from NASA (2005) with the sampling points (Table 1).
The establishment of interspecific interactions influences species occurrence patterns within the landscape. Therefore, we evaluated the influence of Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) presence on red fox occupancy because intraguild competition with other carnivores for food resources may affect the red fox's occupancy pattern (Bandeira et al. 2018; Jiménez et al. 2019; Sarmento et al. 2021; Castañeda et al. 2022). Furthermore, both species may act as direct competitors for one another (Soto and Palomares 2015; Sanglas and Palomares 2022). Egyptian mongoose presence in each camera was assessed from our dataset (Table 1).
However, the presence of a mesocarnivore is not only constrained by competitor species. Top predators can also shape foxes’ spatial behavior. To our knowledge, in Portugal, there are no studies that investigate the effects of the Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) presence, the larger predator in the country, on red fox occurrence. Nevertheless, it is already known that the wolf might kill or indirectly exclude red foxes, where the two species are sympatric (Petroelje et al. 2022), according to the concept of landscape of fear (Bommel and Johnson 2016) (for more information about wolf and red fox interaction see Ferretti et al. 2021, 2023; Rossa et al. 2021). To test if the presence of the Iberian wolf affects the red fox occupancy patterns, we overlapped the wolf distribution range available in Álvares et al (2019) with the red fox detection data (Table 1). Thus, for each camera-trap site, we were able to register if they were located in wolf presence areas. We could not use our dataset to confirm wolf presence because the wolf detection rate was too low. Additionally, this variable was not tested for the south region dataset, because there have been no registers of wolves in this region in the last decades (Álvares et al. 2019; Pimenta et al. 2023).
Finally, we tested the effect of prey availability (rabbits) and potential competitors/predators (free-ranging dogs) (Palomares and Delibes 1993; Palomares et al. 1995; Ritchie et al. 2013; Jiménez et al. 2019). We used the relative abundance of rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a proxy of red foxes’ prey availability (Table 1), a factor that can influence the occupancy of carnivores (Litvaitis et al. 1986; Carbone and Gittleman 2002; Hetherington and Gorman 2007; Sarmento et al. 2011). Furthermore, rabbits were the most often detected red fox prey (Castañeda et al. 2022) in our dataset, most likely because they are easier to identify using camera traps, comparatively to smaller mammal species.
On the other hand, it has been reported that free-ranging dogs change the activity and spatial patterns of native species (Lacerda et al. 2009; Farris et al. 2016; Murphy et al. 2019). The presence of dogs in wild habitats is likely harmful to native carnivore species, namely due to increased competition and predation (Butler and du Toit 2002; Ritchie et al. 2013; Vilela and Lamim-Guedes 2014) or because of direct disturbance and a higher risk of transmission of contagious diseases and parasites (Sillero-Zubiri et al. 2004). We extracted all the independent registers (i.e., photos of the same species, in the same camera, taken at least 30 minutes apart) of rabbits and dogs from our dataset to calculate their relative abundance using the Relative Abundance Index (RAI; O’Brien et al 2003) (Table 1). This index was calculated for 30-day periods because the minimum period a camera-trap was active in each sampling session was 30 days.
The RAI was estimated per camera trap and species as:
$$\:RAI=\:\frac{\text{n}\text{u}\text{m}\text{b}\text{e}\text{r}\:\text{o}\text{f}\:\text{i}\text{n}\text{d}\text{e}\text{p}\text{e}\text{n}\text{d}\text{e}\text{n}\text{t}\:\text{r}\text{e}\text{c}\text{o}\text{r}\text{d}\text{s}\:\text{o}\text{f}\:\text{t}\text{h}\text{e}\:\text{s}\text{p}\text{e}\text{c}\text{i}\text{e}\text{s}\:\text{d}\text{u}\text{r}\text{i}\text{n}\text{g}\:\text{t}\text{h}\text{e}\:\text{f}\text{i}\text{r}\text{s}\text{t}\:30\:\text{d}\text{a}\text{y}\text{s}\:\text{t}\text{h}\text{e}\:\text{c}\text{a}\text{m}\text{e}\text{r}\text{a}\:\text{w}\text{a}\text{s}\:\text{a}\text{c}\text{t}\text{i}\text{v}\text{e}}{30\:\left(\text{n}\text{u}\text{m}\text{b}\text{e}\text{r}\:\text{o}\text{f}\:\text{d}\text{a}\text{y}\text{s}\:\text{t}\text{h}\text{e}\:\text{c}\text{a}\text{m}\text{e}\text{r}\text{a}\:\text{w}\text{a}\text{s}\:\text{a}\text{c}\text{t}\text{i}\text{v}\text{e}\right)}\:\text{x}\:100$$
The use of RAI as a surrogate of abundance has been criticized (e.g., Sollmann et al. 2013) based on the possible detection variability between sites that may bias RAI values. However, other studies found a correlation between RAI estimates and absolute densities if cameras are placed randomly (Tanwar et al. 2021), and not only in trails. Our sampling schemes were not targeting trails, and we believe this could minimize the bias detections and validate the use of RAI.
Statistical analysis
From all camera trap images of red foxes obtained, we only used independent detection events within the same camera-site, i.e. two red fox records registered with a minimum interval of 30 minutes (Davis et al. 2011). Independent events were then grouped into ten periods of three days each, totalizing 30 days of sampling per camera. We considered periods with detections as “1”, periods without detections as “0”, and the absence of data as “NA” when the camera, for some unknown reason, was not active during the whole sampling period.
Considering that red fox detection is imperfect, we started our modelling procedure by testing what variables could influence red fox detection probability, prior to assessing the drivers of occupancy, based on a single-species, single-season occupancy model framework (MacKenzie et al. 2002). This model type considers two separate parameters: detection (hereafter p), defined as the probability a species is detected at a site, given its presence (Rovero and Zimmermann 2016), and occupancy (hereafter psi or ψ), defined as the probability a site is occupied by the target species given a detection probability that is smaller than 1.0 (Mackenzie 2002).
Additionally, for this study, we considered that, at each site, populations were closed for changes in occupancy during the survey period, i.e. we assumed that there was no relevant emigration/immigration during the study. Even though the surveys were conducted in different years, the study period (30 days) in each study site is probably too short for the emigration/immigration rate to be an important process that may affect detectability estimates and for changes in occupancy to occur.
The following steps were the same for both regions, north and south. First, we tested which variables could be more relevant to influence p while keeping psi constant (i.e., psi = 1). We assessed the effect of season, habitat at camera location, number of distinct habitats inside a 200 m radius buffer, Shannon Diversity Index for habitats inside a 200 m radius buffer, RAI of rabbits and RAI of dogs (Table 1) on p (Litvaitis et al. 1986; Carbone and Gittleman, 2002; Sillero-Zubiri et al. 2004; Hetherington and Gorman 2007; Sarmento et al. 2011; Cruz et al. 2015; Farris et al., 2016; Murphy et al., 2019). Those variables were tested for collinearity, using the “corvif” function in the “AED” R package (Zuur et al. 2009) to calculate the Variance Inflation Factors (VIF). Variables with VIF > 3 in each run were considered collinear and excluded from the analysis. This process was repeated until no more variables reached values of VIF > 3 (Zuur et al. 2009). To produce models corresponding to all possible combinations of the candidate variables influencing p, we used the “dredge” function in “MuMIn” R package (Barton 2015). All the models produced were ranked by their Akaike Information Criterion, corrected for small samples (AICc) (Burnham and Anderson 2002), and the one with the lowest AICc value was considered the best model to explain detectability variations. The variables included in the best-supported models for p were then selected and incorporated into all the subsequent occupancy models (Mackenzie 2002).
The next step was to build the occupancy models per se using the “occu” function in the “unmarked” R package (Fiske and Chandler 2011). For this analysis, we grouped the candidate variables into five initial ecological hypotheses, related to the drivers that may influence red fox occupancy, as follows: (H1) Ecoregion; (H2) Interspecific Interactions; (H3) Habitat; (H4) Climatic Factors; (H5) Human Disturbance (see Table 1). Within each hypothesis, all variables were tested for collinearity using the same process done for p (Zuur et al. 2009).
To perform the occupancy models accounting for all hypotheses, we included the variables identified previously as influential for p in the detection section of all models and the group of non-collinear variables from each hypothesis in the psi section of the model. For each hypothesis, we produced models corresponding to all possible combinations of candidate variables, and all models with a ΔAICc ≤ 2 were considered as best models for each one of the tested hypotheses (Burnham and Anderson 2002). When there was more than one model with ΔAICc ≤ 2, an average modeling procedure was implemented to obtain average variables coefficients (MacKenzie and Bailey 2004).
Variables included in the best model, in each one of the hypotheses, whose confident interval of its coefficient did not include 0 (i.e., we could infer with higher degree of certainty their positive or negative influence on occupancy) were considered as variables with well-supported effects (Arnold 2010). Those variables were used as candidates to test an additional “combined” hypothesis (H6) to understand if the combination of variables, used as proxies of different hypotheses, would better explain red fox occupancy probability variation (Castro et al. 2022).
After running the models for these six initial hypotheses and identifying the best overall variables in each hypothesis, we decided to test if the interaction between those variables would improve the models and better explain the red fox occupancy pattern. Thus we created two additional models, representing the interaction between these best overall variables from the previous six hypotheses (Table 1): H7 (Habitat_COS : RAI_Dogs) and H8 (HFI : RAI_Dogs) (see results).
The models for H6, H7, and H8 were built and selected using the same process described above for the other models. So, of all the models created, the one with the lowest overall AICc value was considered the best overall model (Burnham and Anderson 2002).
The goodness-of-fit of the best overall model for the red fox occupancy patterns at both regions was tested for overdispersion by calculating the c-hat value (MacKenzie and Bailey 2004). If there was overdispersion in the models (i.e., the models presented c-hat values distant from 1), then we restarted the process of model building and selection, but using the Quasi Akaike Information Criterion, corrected for small samples sizes (QAICc), to select the best models, considering the threshold of ΔQAICc ≤ 2 to identify the best models (MacKenzie and Bailey 2004). When there was more than one model with ΔQAICc ≤ 2, we implemented a model averaging procedure for models fulfilling this criterion (MacKenzie and Bailey 2004). All statistical analyses were performed using RStudio version 4.3.1 (R Development Core Team 2022).