Included in the List of National Key Protected Wild Plants in 2021, B. striata is an important traditional Chinese medicine resource found in forests, roadside grasslands, and rock crevices at 100 to 3200 m altitudes. B. striata is mainly cultivated in Sichuan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [1–2]. B. striata is noted for its properties of astringency, hemostasis, swelling reduction, and muscle regeneration in ancient Chinese medical texts such as the Shennong Bencao Jing and the Compendium of Materia Medica. B. striata polysaccharides exhibit various pharmacological activities, such as hemostasis, gastric mucosal protection, anti-tumor effects, anti-fibrosis, wound healing promotion, and plasma replacement [3–4]. The B. striata gum extracted from the tubers of B. striata plants also serves as an auxiliary material in various medicines, including insoluble drug carriers, topical hydrogels, wound dressings, targeted drugs, and biological scaffolds [5–6]. In cosmetics, B. striata gum is a non-toxic and harmless plant-based additive that can moisturize the skin and delay its aging [7]. With the recent increase in industrial production of relevant products, the demand for B. striata has been increasing year by year.
However, the recent increase in extreme weather conditions due to climate changes has intensified the heat index and stress, creating a severe crisis in the agricultural sector worldwide [8–9]. This environmental pressure limits B. striata growth and development and disturbs its different metabolic and physiological activities. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of B. striata to high temperatures leads to increased pests and diseases, decreased adaptability, and decreased yield [10–11].
Species distribution models (SDMs) empirically quantify the existing environmental niches of species and predict the underlying species distribution by correlating the distribution data to a set of environmental variables [12–13]. Among them, MaxEnt is a common SDM to model species distribution with presence-only species distribution data. It calculates the probability distribution of the maximum entropy based on constraints and remains relatively robust even with small sample sizes [14–15]. Thus, it has been widely used to predict species distribution in recent years [16–18]. Previous studies have assessed the potential impact of climate change on species to support rare and endangered species conservation [19–21]. Scholars also assessed species invasion, tested evolutionary hypotheses, and predicted disease transmission risks [22–25]. However, studies also showed that complex species-environment relationships may accurately fit a certain dataset but not others [26–28]. The MaxEnt model performs poorly without model setting adjustments and model optimization [29–30]. Numerous studies have demonstrated the significantly improved predictive performance of optimized MaxEnt and its more accurate and reasonable species distribution maps [23, 31].
Through simulation analysis, potentially suitable B. striata habitats in China can be predicted and categorized into different suitability levels, providing scientific references for its habitat selection and protection [32–35].A clear understanding of geographical distribution is foundational and instrumental for effective B. striata protection and management. Therefore, this research aims to (1) use an optimized MaxEnt to predict the distribution of currently suitable B. striata habitats, (2) determine the distribution of important environmental variables and the limitations of ecological characteristics, and (3) predict future changes in the potentially suitable B. striata habitats. By analyzing the distribution trend under future climate changes, this study provides a reasonable reference and decision-making basis for the long-term management and protection of B. striata.