In this study, we validated the occurrence rates of CIN3 + among individuals who met the 1-year and 3-year follow-up criteria recommended by the 2019 ASCCP guidelines (Fig. 3). By differentiating between opportunistic screening and health check-up groups, we observed favorable outcomes with the risk-based approach. Stratifying women based on previous screening results could enhance HPV-based screening's efficiency and effectiveness. This real-world evidence supports personalized screening strategies driven by individual risk levels, demonstrating its applicability in our region and similar middle-income nations.
It has been reported that HPV DNA testing, compared to cytological examination, can detect CIN3 + at an earlier stage and offer stronger preventive effects against invasive cervical cancer8,13. This pivotal shift has prompted revisions in cervical cancer screening guidelines, with major nations spanning Europe, Australia, the Americas, and beyond now designating HPV testing as the primary diagnostic tool14–20. However, studies have also found that global HPV infection rates vary by region and population21,22。A meta-analysis of 194 global studies found that the HPV infection rate among women with normal cervical cytology is approximately 11.7% (95% CI: 11.6%-11.7%), with the highest rates observed in the Caribbean (35.4%), Eastern Africa (33.6%), and sub-Saharan Africa (24.0%)23. These regional differences are related to the level of economic development, with more developed countries or regions having lower HPV infection rates. For example, in Europe and the US, HPV prevalence is typically 8–10%23,24. Our data, in line with this global trend, reveal a significant hrHPV infection prevalence. The observed hrHPV positivity rates of 18.17% in opportunistic screening and 13.22% in health check-ups exceed the global average HPV infection rates and align with the characteristics of developing countries25–27. The difference in infection rates between these two cohorts is primarily attributed to the demographics of each cohort. The outpatient cohort comprises individuals primarily seeking gynecological care due to symptoms or specific concerns, leading to opportunistic screening. This group may exhibit irregular screening patterns, driven by symptoms or episodic concerns. On the other hand, the health check-up cohort encompasses individuals undergoing routine general health examinations, where cervical cancer screening is part of preventive health measures, reflecting asymptomatic and routine health-seeking behavior. The elevated prevalence of overall HPV infection signifies a substantial risk associated with HPV infection within both demographics, shedding light on the imperfections in both vaccination coverage and screening practices, a concern pervasive particularly in developing nations2. Furthermore, in the context where preventive HPV vaccination is not yet included in the national immunization program, cervical cancer screening remains a core component of cervical cancer prevention and control in China. The observed high positivity rates further underscore the urgent need for appropriate risk-based stratification to allocate resources effectively and target interventions.
While the principle of "equal risk, equal management" has been advocated as a criterion for further risk stratification and follow-up of individuals with hrHPV infection, the actual implementation can vary based on individual and regional contexts, lacking a standardized approach28,29. Our study, along with the KPNC cohort, is among the few exploring follow-up after HPV-negative results9,10. During the designated follow-up periods, CIN3 + cases were concentrated within specific risk groups. For instance, during the 1-year opportunistic screening, 2 CIN3 + cases were detected in the HPV-negative LSIL group out of 196, and 3-year follow-up found 19 CIN3 + cases in HPV-negative ASC-US group out of 6,304. Due to the gradual introduction of HPV vaccines in China starting in 2016 and limited supply, the individuals included in our study, conducted from 2012 to 2022, were primarily unvaccinated. As vaccination efforts spreads, non-HPV-related cervical cancer incidence might rise, highlighting the continued importance of cytological examinations and other effective risk stratification measures. Moreover, most CIN3 + cases were detected within HPV-positive cohorts, both in opportunistic screening (337 out of 28,150 cases) and health check-ups (27 out of 4,828 cases). Further age-based analysis revealed that the detection rates of CIN3 + varied within the equal-risk stratified cohorts: <25 years (0.32%), 25–65 years (1.05%), and > 65 years (2.05%). This highlights that the initial screening population might have been carrying the infection for a prolonged duration, with many cases being identified only when presenting at an older age. Remarkably, all CIN3 + cases identified in the health check-up cohort were within the 25–65 years age range, while none were found in the > 65 years range, underscoring the effectiveness of regular screening in timely disease control and prevention of disease progression. By stratifying ages 25–65, our study enriches screening strategy discussions, aiding efficiency and resource allocation30,31.
The implementation of new strategies proposed for cervical cancer screening presents several challenges7,32. Despite discouraging annual screenings for many years, practices persist. In the context of our study, many patients without timely follow-up results did not miss their appointments but actually arrived earlier than expected. This highlights the need to strike a balance in follow-up frequency, as excessive visits might potentially drain patients' patience and result in them not attending when necessary. On the other hand, the limited number of CIN3 + cases observed after the follow-up periods suggests low rapid progression risk, aligning with the disease's gradual development33. As screening expands and vaccine coverage increases, cervical cancer incidence is expected to decline, raising the potential of extending screening intervals25,34. Certainly, this must be approached with caution. Further research, including mathematical modeling and long-term studies, is necessary to evaluate the feasibility and safety of such an approach and provide evidence for potential guideline adjustments. The ultimately aiming is to achieve a balance between reducing the burden of frequent screenings and ensuring the continued effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention programs35–37.
Our study's strengths are evident in its substantial sample size and extensive observation period, enhancing the robustness and real-world applicability of findings. Another significant aspect of our study is the validation conducted on both opportunistic screening and health check-up populations using commercial HPV testing and standardized protocols akin to developed regions. This validation extends to both groups endorsing the risk-based stratified management strategy, thereby emphasizing its adaptability across diverse healthcare settings.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge the study's limitations. Firstly, the data collection was confined to a single tertiary hospital in China, potentially constraining generalizability of our findings to broader region. Secondly, interpretation of absolute differences between distinct participant groups warrants caution. Moreover, limited follow-up data might restrict broader applicability, yet we maintain this limitation doesn't undermine overarching conclusions. We contend that while not meeting the rigorous standards of an ideal experiment, our study is well-suited for the context of initial screening, offering insights from a real-world dataset.
To conclude, our study seeks to bridge gaps in current screening practices and contribute to refining cervical cancer prevention and control efforts in China and globally. The risk-based stratified management strategy holds the potential to guide more precise interventions, reducing unnecessary procedures and enhancing the early detection of cervical cancer. The findings from this study have the potential to offer invaluable reference for countries facing similar resource constraints and to proffer insights shaping the evolution of more precise and efficacious cervical cancer screening policies worldwide.