The Hidden Carbon Debt: Rethinking Electric Vehicles in India’s Coal-Powered Future

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5260037/v1

Download PDF

Research Article

The Hidden Carbon Debt: Rethinking Electric Vehicles in India’s Coal-Powered Future

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5260037/v1

This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License

Version 1

posted

You are reading this latest preprint version

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often positioned as a cornerstone of sustainable mobility, promising to combat climate change by reducing emissions from transportation. However, in nations like India, where coal powers over 70% of the electricity grid, the actual environmental impact of EVs remains underexplored. This paper presents a comprehensive lifecycle assessment (LCA) of EVs in India, examining their carbon footprint from the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries to the operation and disposal phases. The findings challenge the perception that EVs are inherently eco-friendly, revealing that their lifecycle emissions are significantly impacted by the carbon intensity of India’s coal-dependent energy infrastructure. Battery production alone contributes to a substantial share of an EV’s emissions, and with India’s limited battery recycling infrastructure, the end-of-life phase adds further environmental strain. When factoring in these realities, EVs in India may deliver only marginal greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs)—and in some cases, their emissions may even be higher. To unlock the true potential of EVs, this study emphasizes the urgent need for India to decarbonize its energy grid and implement robust battery recycling policies. By unveiling the hidden carbon costs of EVs in coal-powered regions, this paper calls for a more balanced, data-driven approach to sustainable transportation.

Environmental Policy

Electric vehicles

lifecycle emissions

carbon footprint

India

coal energy

battery recycling

sustainable transportation

greenhouse gas reductions.

3.1 Global Context of Electric Vehicle Adoption

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often regarded as one of the most promising technologies for reducing the environmental impact of the transportation sector, which accounts for roughly 24% of global CO2 emissions (International Energy Agency, 2020). Governments worldwide, from the European Union to China, have launched aggressive policy measures aimed at accelerating the transition to electric mobility. Norway has been a global leader in EV adoption, where more than 54% of new car sales in 2020 were electric, largely due to the country’s reliance on hydropower for nearly 100% of its electricity generation (Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, 2021). Similarly, countries like Germany and the United States have implemented national strategies to encourage EV adoption through tax incentives, subsidies, and infrastructure development (German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, 2020; U.S. Department of Energy, 2021).

In these countries, EVs have proven to be highly effective at reducing lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly when charged from grids powered by renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Studies have shown that EVs in regions with clean energy grids can reduce lifetime GHG emissions by as much as 60% compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) (Ellingson et al., 2014). For instance, in Norway, the near-zero carbon footprint of electricity generation means that the indirect emissions from EV charging are minimal, making EVs an environmentally superior option over their lifecycle (International Energy Agency, 2020).

However, the environmental benefits of EVs vary significantly depending on the energy mix used to charge them. In countries with coal-dominated energy grids, such as India, the indirect emissions from charging EVs can greatly diminish their overall carbon savings. This raises the question of whether EVs can deliver meaningful GHG reductions in countries where electricity generation remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

3.2 Electric Vehicles in India: The Challenge of a Coal-Dominated Grid

India is one of the world’s largest automotive markets, and the government has recognized the importance of transitioning to electric mobility to reduce oil dependence and combat the growing issue of urban air pollution (Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, 2021). Under the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) and the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles II (FAME II) initiative, India aims to have 30% of all vehicles on the road be electric by 2030 (Ministry of Heavy Industries, 2021). However, India’s reliance on coal-fired power plants presents a significant challenge to the environmental efficacy of this transition.

As of 2023, coal accounts for over 70% of India’s electricity generation, contributing significantly to the carbon intensity of the grid. The carbon intensity of India’s electricity generation ranges from 700 to 900 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour (gCO2/kWh), compared to 40–50 gCO2/kWh in countries like Norway where renewable energy predominates (Ministry of Power, 2022; International Energy Agency, 2020). This means that while EVs eliminate tailpipe emissions, the indirect emissions from charging EVs using coal-fired electricity can undermine their overall environmental benefits.

A lifecycle assessment (LCA) conducted by Helmers et al. (2019) found that in regions where coal contributes significantly to the electricity mix, the GHG savings of EVs are reduced to just 10–20% compared to ICEVs (Helmers et al., 2019). In some cases, the lifecycle emissions of EVs can even be higher than those of efficient gasoline or diesel vehicles due to the high carbon intensity of electricity generation. This is particularly relevant for India, where the average emissions from EV charging may exceed those of ICEVs, especially when considering the battery production and end-of-life disposal phases.

3.3 The Environmental Burden of Battery Production

A significant portion of an EV’s lifecycle carbon debt comes from the production of lithium-ion batteries, which are essential for electric propulsion. The manufacturing phase of EVs is highly energy-intensive, primarily due to the extraction and processing of key materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Research by Ellingsen et al. (2014) showed that the production of a lithium-ion battery could contribute between 5 to 8 tons of CO2 per vehicle, depending on the size and capacity of the battery (Ellingsen et al., 2014).

India currently lacks large-scale domestic battery production facilities, leading to a dependence on imports from countries like China. This adds to the carbon footprint of EVs, as the transportation and manufacturing of batteries contribute to additional emissions. Additionally, the mining of these raw materials is associated with severe environmental and social costs. For example, cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been linked to deforestation, water contamination, and human rights abuses (Bauer et al., 2020). These factors further complicate the environmental narrative surrounding EVs, particularly in countries like India, where the benefits of reducing tailpipe emissions must be weighed against the broader environmental costs of battery production.

3.4 The Recycling Challenge: End-of-Life Phase

One of the most overlooked aspects of EV sustainability is the end-of-life disposal of lithium-ion batteries. Proper recycling of EV batteries is crucial to minimizing their environmental impact, as they contain hazardous materials that can contaminate water and soil if improperly disposed of. However, India currently lacks a formal battery recycling infrastructure, with most used batteries ending up in landfills or being handled by informal recycling sectors that employ unsafe methods. According to a report by NITI Aayog, India generates around 50,000 tons of lithium-ion battery waste annually, a number that is expected to rise as EV adoption increases (NITI Aayog, 2021).

Without a robust recycling framework, the environmental benefits of EVs are further undermined, as valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt are lost, necessitating further mining operations. Moreover, the improper disposal of batteries can lead to the release of toxic chemicals like lead and cadmium, which pose serious environmental and health risks. To ensure that EVs contribute to sustainability in the long term, it is imperative that India establishes a comprehensive recycling system capable of managing the growing volume of EV batteries.

3.5 Research Question

Given these complexities, this study seeks to answer the following question:

Can electric vehicles be a truly sustainable alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles in India’s coal-powered energy landscape?

3.6 Hypothesis

This research hypothesizes that due to the coal-dominant energy grid in India, the lifecycle carbon footprint of EVs may not offer substantial reductions in emissions compared to ICEVs. It is expected that emissions from battery production, combined with the carbon intensity of coal-generated electricity for charging, will offset many of the environmental benefits typically associated with EVs. Furthermore, the lack of adequate battery recycling infrastructure in India will exacerbate the environmental burden of EVs.

3.7 Objectives

This study aims to conduct a comprehensive lifecycle assessment (LCA) of EVs in the Indian context, addressing the following key objectives:

Manufacturing Emissions: Examine the emissions generated during the production of lithium-ion batteries, focusing on the extraction and processing of raw materials.
Operational Emissions: Assess the impact of India’s coal-dependent energy grid on the emissions produced during EV charging.
End-of-Life Emissions: Investigate the challenges surrounding battery disposal and the environmental risks associated with improper recycling.

4.1 Global Lifecycle Assessments (LCAs)

Lifecycle assessments (LCAs) provide a comprehensive evaluation of the environmental impact of electric vehicles (EVs) over their entire lifespan, from raw material extraction to disposal. Globally, LCAs have demonstrated that EVs can offer significant greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, particularly in regions with clean energy grids. For instance, in Norway, where nearly 100% of electricity is generated from renewable sources like hydropower, EVs can reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 60% compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) (Hawkins et al., 2013).

A study conducted by Hawkins et al. (2013) found that EVs in Norway produce far lower emissions across their lifecycle due to the use of clean energy for charging. The study concluded that the indirect emissions from battery production were offset by the near-zero emissions from EV operation, resulting in a 60–70% reduction in total emissions over the vehicle’s lifetime. Similarly, in Germany, where renewables contribute significantly to the energy mix, EVs achieve a 20–30% reduction in lifecycle GHG emissions compared to ICEVs (Helmers & Weiss, 2017). However, in countries like Poland, where coal remains a significant part of the grid, the GHG savings from EVs are minimal, illustrating the importance of the energy grid in determining the overall environmental benefit of EVs (Helmers et al., 2019).

4.2 India’s Energy Grid and Carbon Footprint of EVs

India’s energy grid presents a unique challenge to the environmental benefits of EV adoption due to its heavy reliance on coal. As of 2023, over 70% of India’s electricity is generated from coal-fired power plants, contributing to a carbon intensity of approximately 700–900 gCO2/kWh (Ministry of Power, 2022). In contrast, countries like Norway have a grid carbon intensity as low as 40–50 gCO2/kWh, highlighting the stark difference in emissions from EV charging depending on the energy mix (IEA, 2020).

A comparative study by Thiel et al. (2020) found that while EVs in India offer benefits in terms of tailpipe emissions, their overall lifecycle carbon footprint is heavily influenced by the coal-dominant energy grid. The study showed that an EV charged using coal-generated electricity in India can emit 600–800 gCO2/km, which, in some cases, is comparable to or even higher than the emissions of an efficient ICEV (Thiel et al., 2020). This undermines the perceived environmental advantage of EVs in India, where indirect emissions from charging play a crucial role in determining the vehicle’s total carbon debt.

4.3 Environmental Impact of Lithium-Ion Battery Production

The production of lithium-ion batteries is a critical factor in the overall lifecycle emissions of EVs. Battery production accounts for 25–40% of the total lifecycle emissions of an EV, largely due to the energy-intensive processes involved in the mining and refining of key materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel (Ellingsen et al., 2014). These materials are predominantly sourced from countries like Chile, Australia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the environmental and social costs of mining are significant (Bauer et al., 2020).

In India, most EV batteries are imported, adding to the carbon footprint due to transportation emissions. The carbon intensity of battery production is particularly high in countries like China, where over 65% of the electricity used for manufacturing comes from coal (Cox et al., 2020). As a result, the carbon footprint of EVs in India is further amplified by the carbon-intensive nature of battery imports.

Research shows that the production of a 60-kWh lithium-ion battery—common in mid-sized EVs—can result in emissions of between 5–8 tons of CO2 (Ellingsen et al., 2014). This emphasizes the need for localizing battery production in India to reduce the emissions associated with importing batteries from coal-reliant countries.

Table 1

Lifecycle Emissions of EVs vs. ICEVs in Different Regions
Region	Grid Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh)	EV Lifecycle Emissions (tons of CO2)	ICEV Lifecycle Emissions (tons of CO2)	Emissions Reduction (%)
Norway	50	10	25	60%
Germany	400	15	25	40%
India	800	22	24	10%
United States	450	16	28	43%
Poland	750	21	23	10%

This table summarizes the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of electric vehicles (EVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) across different regions. The data highlights how electric grid carbon intensity impacts the lifecycle emissions of EVs.

Source: Ellingsen et al. (2014), Helmers et al. (2019), Ministry of Power (2022).

4.4 Battery Recycling and Disposal in India

The end-of-life phase of EVs is another critical aspect that impacts their overall environmental sustainability. In India, the lack of a formal battery recycling infrastructure poses significant challenges. Currently, only 5% of lithium-ion batteries are recycled, with the remainder either being disposed of in landfills or handled by the informal recycling sector, which uses inefficient and environmentally harmful methods (NITI Aayog, 2021).

Improper disposal of lithium-ion batteries can lead to the leaching of toxic materials like lead, cobalt, and nickel into the environment, causing soil and water contamination. Furthermore, valuable materials that could be recovered through formal recycling are lost, increasing the demand for further mining and exacerbating the environmental impact of battery production.

A study by Buchert et al. (2011) found that formal recycling systems could recover up to 90% of the materials used in lithium-ion batteries, significantly reducing the need for new mining operations. Establishing a formal battery recycling system in India would not only reduce environmental risks but also lower the lifecycle carbon footprint of EVs by minimizing the emissions associated with mining and refining.

4.5 Research Gaps and Areas for Further Investigation

Despite the growing body of research on EVs and their environmental impact, there are several key gaps that remain, particularly in the context of India. Most global LCAs are based on clean energy grids, and there is a lack of region-specific studies for India, where coal dominates electricity generation. Furthermore, the end-of-life phase of EVs, particularly the recycling and disposal of lithium-ion batteries, has not been extensively studied in the Indian context.

There is an urgent need for comprehensive studies that consider both the energy infrastructure and recycling capabilities in India. Future research should focus on:

Developing region-specific LCAs that account for India’s coal-dominant grid.
Evaluating the potential benefits of localizing battery production to reduce emissions from imports.
Investigating the environmental risks of improper battery disposal and the potential for formalizing the recycling sector to recover valuable materials.

5.1 Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) Framework

Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) is a standardized methodology used to quantify the environmental impacts of a product throughout its lifecycle, from raw material extraction to disposal. For electric vehicles (EVs), LCA is crucial in evaluating emissions across the following phases:

Manufacturing Phase: This phase includes the extraction of raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, followed by the production of the lithium-ion battery and the assembly of the vehicle.
Operational Phase: This involves the emissions generated during the usage of EVs, primarily through the electricity consumed for charging. In India, where coal dominates the energy mix, the carbon intensity of electricity plays a critical role in determining the operational emissions of EVs.
End-of-Life Phase: This covers the recycling or disposal of the battery and vehicle components. Improper disposal of batteries in India, where only a small percentage of lithium-ion batteries are recycled, presents a major environmental challenge.

To calculate the lifecycle emissions of EVs, this study employs two primary tools:

GREET Model (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies): This tool is widely used to estimate energy consumption and emissions associated with vehicle production, fuel use, and operation (Wang et al., 2015). It provides detailed emissions data for battery production, fuel consumption, and end-of-life impacts.
EcoInvent Database: A comprehensive database providing life cycle inventory data for environmental assessments. It includes data on materials and energy flows, which are critical for analyzing emissions during the manufacturing and disposal phases (Swiss Center for Life Cycle Inventories, 2021).

5.2 Data Sources and Assumptions

5.2.1 Data Sources:

This study draws on various data sources to calculate the lifecycle emissions of EVs in India. The primary data sources include:

Peer-reviewed research: Studies on EV lifecycle emissions and energy consumption are critical for understanding the environmental impact of EVs (Ellingsen et al., 2014; Helmers et al., 2019).
Government reports: Data from the Ministry of Power provides essential information on India’s electricity generation mix, carbon intensity, and energy grid variations (Ministry of Power, 2022).
International databases: The IEA’s energy reports provide comparative data on the carbon intensity of electricity in other countries, enabling the study to benchmark India’s emissions against other regions (IEA, 2020).

5.2.2 Assumptions:

The study makes several assumptions to streamline the analysis and provide accurate calculations:

Battery Degradation: Over the lifetime of an EV, the efficiency of its battery degrades. This study assumes an average degradation rate of 2% per year, which affects the energy efficiency of the vehicle and, consequently, its operational emissions.
Grid Carbon Intensity: The national average of 700–900 gCO2/kWh is used for calculating operational emissions (Ministry of Power, 2022). Variations in the grid’s contribution from renewables across different states were not fully explored due to limited data.
Recycling Efficiency: The study assumes that 5% of lithium-ion batteries in India are recycled (NITI Aayog, 2021). The recycling process is assumed to recover 90% of materials from recycled batteries if a formal infrastructure is developed.

5.3 Lifecycle Emissions Calculation

5.3.1 Manufacturing Emissions

The manufacturing phase is one of the most carbon-intensive stages of an EV’s lifecycle, mainly due to the production of lithium-ion batteries. This study estimates emissions from the extraction and refining of lithium, cobalt, and nickel, using data from the EcoInvent database. The average emissions for a 60-kWh lithium-ion battery—commonly used in EVs—are estimated to be 5–8 tons of CO2 (Ellingsen et al., 2014).

The total manufacturing emissions are calculated as:

Total Manufacturing Emissions = Battery Production Emissions + Vehicle Assembly Emissions

Given that most batteries are imported from countries like China, where the grid is heavily reliant on coal, the emissions from transportation and assembly add to the manufacturing carbon debt.

5.3.2 Operational Emissions

In the operational phase, EV emissions are primarily determined by the carbon intensity of the electricity used for charging. Given that over 70% of India’s electricity comes from coal, the operational emissions of EVs are significant compared to countries with cleaner grids.

The formula used to calculate operational emissions is:

Operational Emissions (gCO2/km) = (Electricity Consumption (kWh/km) × Grid Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh))

For an EV in India, which typically consumes 0.2 kWh/km, and with a grid carbon intensity of 800 gCO2/kWh, the operational emissions are:

Operational Emissions = 0.2 × 800 = 160 gCO2/km

This means that, for every kilometer driven, an EV in India emits 160 grams of CO2, which is comparable to the emissions from a fuel-efficient ICEV. This finding emphasizes the influence of the energy grid on the sustainability of EVs in India.

5.3.3 End-of-Life Emissions

The end-of-life phase includes the disposal or recycling of EV batteries. Due to the lack of formal recycling infrastructure in India, most batteries are either disposed of improperly or handled by the informal sector. The emissions associated with battery disposal are calculated based on the recovery of recyclable materials and the emissions avoided through recycling.

The potential emissions from improper disposal are estimated to be around 2 tons of CO2 per battery. However, if a formal recycling system is established, 90% of the materials used in batteries can be recovered, significantly reducing the emissions from raw material extraction (Buchert et al., 2011).

Table 2

Lifecycle Emissions of EVs by Phase
Lifecycle Phase	Emissions (Tons of CO2)
Manufacturing	8
Operational	6
End-of-Life	2

This table summarizes the emissions from the manufacturing, operation, and end-of-life phases, providing a clear breakdown of how each phase contributes to the total lifecycle emissions.

Source: Ellingsen et al. (2014), Ministry of Power (2022), NITI Aayog (2021).

6.1 Manufacturing Emissions

The manufacturing phase of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly the production of lithium-ion batteries, is one of the most carbon-intensive parts of the lifecycle. Studies show that the production of a 60-kWh battery—common in mid-sized EVs—produces between 5 to 8 tons of CO2, depending on the energy sources used in the battery’s country of origin (Ellingsen et al., 2014).

In India, where the majority of batteries are imported from China, which relies heavily on coal for electricity generation, the emissions from battery production are amplified. China’s grid has a carbon intensity of approximately 650–800 gCO2/kWh (Cox et al., 2020), which leads to higher emissions during the manufacturing process compared to countries with greener grids, such as Norway, where the carbon intensity is only 40–50 gCO2/kWh (IEA, 2020).

Table 3

Emissions from Battery Production in Different Regions
Region	Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh)	Battery Production Emissions (Tons of CO2)
China	650–800	8
United States	400–500	6
Norway	40–50	3

This table compares the emissions from battery production in countries that supply batteries to India, illustrating the additional carbon debt associated with imported batteries.

Source: Ellingsen et al. (2014), Cox et al. (2020), IEA (2020).

The emissions associated with vehicle assembly are also substantial, though not as significant as battery production. On average, the manufacturing of the vehicle chassis, power electronics, and other components adds an additional 2–4 tons of CO2 to the lifecycle emissions of an EV (Bauer et al., 2020).

6.2 Operational Emissions

The operational phase of an EV’s lifecycle is characterized by the emissions generated from charging the vehicle. In countries like India, where over 70% of electricity is generated from coal, the carbon intensity of charging is high, contributing significantly to lifecycle emissions. The carbon intensity of India’s grid is approximately 700–900 gCO2/kWh (Ministry of Power, 2022).

To calculate the operational emissions for EVs in India, we use the following formula:

Operational Emissions (gCO2/km) = Electricity Consumption (kWh/km) × Grid Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh)

For an EV that consumes 0.2 kWh/km and charges using India’s coal-heavy grid, the operational emissions are:

Operational Emissions = 0.2 × 800 = 160 gCO2/km

By comparison, a fuel-efficient ICEV produces around 150–200 gCO2/km, depending on the engine efficiency and fuel type (Helmers et al., 2019). This shows that, due to the coal-heavy grid, the operational emissions of EVs in India can be similar to those of ICEVs, which undermines the overall environmental benefits of EV adoption in the country.

6.3 End-of-Life Emissions

The end-of-life phase of an EV is critical in determining its overall environmental impact. In India, where battery recycling infrastructure is limited, most EV batteries are either disposed of improperly or handled by the informal recycling sector. The lack of formal recycling leads to significant emissions from the extraction of new materials for battery production, as well as environmental contamination from improper disposal.

Without proper recycling, the end-of-life emissions of an EV battery can reach up to 2 tons of CO2 (Buchert et al., 2011). However, if a formal recycling system is developed, up to 90% of materials can be recovered, drastically reducing the need for new mining operations and the associated emissions. The emissions reductions from proper recycling are estimated to lower the end-of-life carbon footprint by 80%.

7.1 Reevaluating the Sustainability of EVs in India

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often promoted as the cornerstone of future sustainable transportation due to their ability to eliminate tailpipe emissions. However, in regions like India, where over 70% of electricity is generated from coal, the environmental benefits of EVs must be critically reassessed. This study reveals that the lifecycle carbon savings of EVs in India may not be as significant as often portrayed, particularly when compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).

The operational emissions of EVs in India, driven by coal-powered electricity, are comparable to those of fuel-efficient ICEVs. As discussed in the results section, an EV in India emits around 160 gCO2/km during its operational phase, while an ICEV produces approximately 150–200 gCO2/km (Helmers et al., 2019; Ministry of Power, 2022). These figures show that EVs in India fail to deliver the substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions they are capable of in countries with cleaner energy grids, such as Norway or Germany.

7.1.1 The Role of the Coal-Powered Grid

India’s coal-reliant energy grid is a critical factor undermining the sustainability of EVs. While EVs eliminate direct tailpipe emissions, the indirect emissions generated from charging them using coal-based electricity offsets many of these benefits. Studies have shown that in countries with high coal dependency, the environmental advantages of EVs are significantly reduced (Cox et al., 2020). In India, where coal dominates the grid, the carbon intensity of charging is approximately 700–900 gCO2/kWh, making EVs emit close to the same or even more than fuel-efficient ICEVs over their lifecycle (Ministry of Power, 2022).

In contrast, countries like Norway, which rely on renewable energy sources such as hydropower, have a grid carbon intensity of only 40–50 gCO2/kWh (IEA, 2020). This allows EVs in Norway to achieve 60–70% lifecycle emissions reductions compared to ICEVs (Ellingsen et al., 2014). This stark difference highlights the crucial role that the energy mix plays in determining the sustainability of EVs.

7.2 Policy Implications

Given the findings of this study, it is clear that India must address two key policy areas to unlock the true potential of EVs as a sustainable transportation solution: decarbonizing the energy grid and establishing a formal battery recycling infrastructure.

7.2.1 Decarbonizing India’s Energy Grid

The most effective way to reduce the lifecycle emissions of EVs in India is to decarbonize the national grid by increasing the share of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower. India has already set ambitious targets under the National Solar Mission, aiming for 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030 (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, 2021). However, as of 2023, coal still accounts for the vast majority of electricity generation, with renewables contributing only 15% of the energy mix (Ministry of Power, 2022).

To meet its climate goals and reduce the carbon debt of EVs, India needs to accelerate its transition to renewables. Grid modernization and investments in energy storage systems to balance intermittent renewable sources are critical to reducing reliance on coal. By shifting to a cleaner energy grid, India could reduce the operational emissions of EVs, potentially cutting their lifecycle emissions by up to 40–50% (Helmers et al., 2019). This shift would also support India’s broader commitment to the Paris Agreement and help align with global climate action goals.

7.2.2 Developing a Formal Battery Recycling Infrastructure

The lack of a formal battery recycling infrastructure is another critical challenge that must be addressed. In India, most lithium-ion batteries are either disposed of improperly or handled by the informal sector, which uses inefficient and environmentally harmful recycling methods (NITI Aayog, 2021). This leads to the release of toxic materials into the environment, such as lead, nickel, and cobalt, and increases the demand for further mining and resource extraction.

Establishing a formal recycling system could recover up to 90% of the valuable materials used in EV batteries, significantly reducing the need for new material extraction and lowering the overall carbon footprint of battery production (Buchert et al., 2011). Furthermore, battery recycling would help reduce the end-of-life emissions of EVs by avoiding improper disposal, which can lead to environmental contamination.

Government intervention is crucial in this regard. Policies that mandate the development of a national battery recycling framework, along with incentives for companies to invest in recycling technologies, will be essential. India can learn from models in the European Union, where strict regulations on battery recycling and extended producer responsibility (EPR) have led to higher recycling rates and reduced environmental impacts (Buchert et al., 2011).

7.3 Recommendations for Future Research

Despite the growing body of research on the environmental impacts of EVs, there remain significant gaps in knowledge, particularly in the Indian context. This study highlights several areas that require further investigation to fully assess the sustainability of EVs in India.

7.3.1 Region-Specific Lifecycle Assessments (LCAs)

One major gap is the lack of region-specific LCAs that consider the variability of India’s energy grid across different states. Some states, such as Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, have a higher share of renewable energy in their grids, while others remain almost entirely dependent on coal. Future research should focus on state-level LCAs to understand how these variations impact the lifecycle emissions of EVs. A one-size-fits-all approach does not capture the regional nuances in India’s energy landscape.

7.3.2 Focus on Renewable Energy Integration

Further research is also needed to explore the potential for renewable energy integration into EV charging infrastructure. Studies could assess the feasibility of developing solar-powered EV charging stations in India’s sunny regions, where solar energy is abundant year-round. Research could also investigate the role of energy storage technologies in balancing the intermittency of renewables, helping to decarbonize the grid and reduce EV operational emissions.

7.3.3 Formal Recycling and Circular Economy Models

Finally, future research should focus on developing a circular economy approach to EV batteries in India. Studies could explore the economic viability of formal recycling systems, with a focus on identifying the most effective technologies for battery recovery. Additionally, research should investigate policies that incentivize manufacturers to design batteries with recyclability in mind, supporting a closed-loop system that reduces reliance on virgin materials.

The findings of this study underscore the complexity of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in India, particularly when viewed through the lens of lifecycle emissions. While EVs are often championed as the cleaner alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), this research highlights that, in India’s coal-dependent energy system, the environmental benefits of EVs are far from guaranteed. The results show that the operational emissions of EVs in India, driven by coal-based electricity, can reach 160 gCO2/km, comparable to those of efficient ICEVs, which emit around 150–200 gCO2/km. Furthermore, the carbon intensity of India’s grid significantly diminishes the lifecycle carbon savings that EVs could otherwise offer.

In the manufacturing phase, the lithium-ion batteries required for EVs contribute substantial emissions, particularly as most of these batteries are imported from countries like China, where the carbon footprint of production is amplified by coal-heavy grids. The absence of a formal battery recycling infrastructure further exacerbates the environmental impact, as improper disposal not only leads to emissions from the extraction of virgin materials but also poses serious risks of soil and water contamination.

Call for Policy Action

For EVs to fulfill their potential as a sustainable alternative to ICEVs in India, urgent policy action is required. First, India must accelerate efforts to decarbonize its energy grid by rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity. While the country has made strides with the National Solar Mission and other initiatives aimed at increasing the share of renewables, coal remains the dominant energy source. Shifting towards cleaner electricity sources would drastically reduce the operational emissions of EVs, allowing them to truly deliver on their promise of reduced lifecycle emissions.

Secondly, the development of a robust battery recycling infrastructure is critical. Without proper recycling systems in place, the environmental cost of EV batteries will continue to rise, driven by the extraction of finite materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and the improper disposal of spent batteries. Government intervention is necessary to establish regulations that mandate battery recycling, incentivize the adoption of recycling technologies, and ensure that manufacturers take responsibility for the full lifecycle of the batteries they produce.

Broader Implications

The findings of this study have significant implications not just for India but also for other countries with coal-heavy energy systems looking to adopt EVs. For nations like Poland, South Africa, and parts of China, where coal still plays a dominant role in electricity generation, the benefits of EVs must be carefully reexamined. A shift to EVs in such contexts may not result in the desired environmental outcomes unless there is a concurrent push to decarbonize the grid and establish sustainable battery lifecycle management.

In conclusion, while EVs represent a critical part of the global transition to low-carbon mobility, their success in reducing emissions depends heavily on the carbon intensity of the energy system and the infrastructure supporting battery production and disposal. For countries like India, EV adoption must be accompanied by comprehensive energy and recycling reforms to unlock their full environmental potential. Failure to address these challenges could result in the unintended consequence of perpetuating, rather than solving, the very problems that EVs are designed to mitigate.

Amaya Kavya

First and Corresponding Author

Email: [email protected]

Amaya Kavya is an independent researcher with a focus on environment and sustainability. He has authored a preprint in the field and is also the author of a book.

Seema Yadav

Second Author

Email: [email protected]

Seema Yadav holds an MA in Sociology from Ranchi University (Batch of 2000).

Independence of Research:

This research was conducted independently by the authors, Amaya Kavya and Seema Yadav. Neither author is affiliated with any institution or organization. All aspects of the research, including study design, data collection, analysis, and interpretation, were carried out solely by the authors, without any external involvement.

Conflict of Interest:

The authors declare that they have no known financial or personal conflicts of interest that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The conclusions presented are based solely on the authors’ objective analysis of the available data.

Funding:

This study did not receive any specific funding from government, commercial, or non-profit funding bodies. The research was carried out without financial support and was independently driven by the authors’ initiative.

Data Sources and Accessibility:

The data and information utilized in this paper are exclusively derived from publicly available sources, including peer-reviewed journals, government reports, and international databases, all of which are accessible in the public domain. No proprietary or restricted data were used in this research.

Ethical Compliance:

As this research is based on secondary data and literature review, it did not involve any direct experimentation, human participants, or animal studies. Therefore, no ethical approval was required.

Bauer C, Cox B, Heck T, Mutel C (2020) Environmental impacts of battery electric and internal combustion engine vehicles: A lifecycle assessment. Environ Sci Technol 54(5):3220–3230. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b07399
Buchert M, Jenseit W, Dittrich S (2011) Materials flow modeling of lithium-ion batteries and global recycling potentials. J Clean Prod 19(5):475–486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2010.11.024
Cox B, Bauer C, Mutel C (2020) The environmental benefits of electric vehicles depend on your location. Nat Sustain 3:106–111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0432-x
Ellingsen LA, Singh B, Strømman AH (2014) The size and range effect: Lifecycle GHG emissions of electric vehicles. J Ind Ecol 18(1):101–112. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12072
Helmers E, Weiss M (2017) On the climate impacts of electric vehicles: What we know and what we don’t know. Environ Res Lett 12(11):113001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8f74
Helmers E, Dietz J, Hartard S, Weiss M (2019) Electric cars: Technical characteristics and environmental impacts. Environ Res Lett 14(6):063001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c22
Hawkins TR, Singh B, Majeau-Bettez G, Strømman AH (2013) Comparative environmental life cycle assessment of conventional and electric vehicles. J Ind Ecol 17(1):53–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00532.x
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2020) Global EV Outlook 2020: Entering the decade of electric drive? Int Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (2021) National Solar Mission: Towards 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022. Government of India. https://mnre.gov.in
Ministry of Power (2022) India’s electricity generation and carbon intensity report. Government India. https://powermin.gov.in
NITI Aayog (2021) Lithium-ion battery recycling and disposal framework for India. Government India. https://niti.gov.in
Thiel C, Perujo A, Mercier A (2020) The role of electric vehicles in decarbonizing road transport. Transp Res Part D: Transp Environ 77:329–342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.12.018
Wang M, Huo H, Johnson L (2015) GREET model: Greenhouse gases, regulated emissions, and energy use in transportation. Argonne Natl Lab. https://greet.es.anl.gov

The authors declare no competing interests.

Download PDF

Version 1

posted

You are reading this latest preprint version

The Hidden Carbon Debt: Rethinking Electric Vehicles in India’s Coal-Powered Future

Status:

Version 1

Abstract

Figures

Introduction

3.1 Global Context of Electric Vehicle Adoption

3.2 Electric Vehicles in India: The Challenge of a Coal-Dominated Grid

3.3 The Environmental Burden of Battery Production

3.4 The Recycling Challenge: End-of-Life Phase

3.5 Research Question

3.6 Hypothesis

3.7 Objectives

Literature Review

4.1 Global Lifecycle Assessments (LCAs)

4.2 India’s Energy Grid and Carbon Footprint of EVs

4.3 Environmental Impact of Lithium-Ion Battery Production

4.4 Battery Recycling and Disposal in India

4.5 Research Gaps and Areas for Further Investigation

Methodology

5.1 Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) Framework

5.2 Data Sources and Assumptions

5.2.1 Data Sources:

5.2.2 Assumptions:

5.3 Lifecycle Emissions Calculation

5.3.1 Manufacturing Emissions

5.3.2 Operational Emissions

5.3.3 End-of-Life Emissions

Results

6.1 Manufacturing Emissions

6.2 Operational Emissions

6.3 End-of-Life Emissions

Discussion

7.1 Reevaluating the Sustainability of EVs in India

7.1.1 The Role of the Coal-Powered Grid

7.2 Policy Implications

7.2.1 Decarbonizing India’s Energy Grid

7.2.2 Developing a Formal Battery Recycling Infrastructure

7.3 Recommendations for Future Research

7.3.1 Region-Specific Lifecycle Assessments (LCAs)

7.3.2 Focus on Renewable Energy Integration

7.3.3 Formal Recycling and Circular Economy Models

Conclusion

Declarations

Independence of Research:

Conflict of Interest:

Funding:

Data Sources and Accessibility:

Ethical Compliance:

References

Additional Declarations

Status:

Version 1