The findings of this study provided interesting information. The mortality rate was quite low, compared to the data of other APCUs (9), although relatively higher compared to our previous data (7). One possible reason is the change of patients’ pattern admitted to APCU, from patients with uncontrolled pain, which was one the principal indications for admission, to patients with worsening of the general conditions, also generated from a larger bed availability. Moreover, discharging home may be problematic, as well transfer to hospice, due to unavailability of hospice beds. Indeed, mortality risk was independently associated with home palliative care referral for patients with cognitive failure and general worsening of the clinical condition, as well being off-therapy. Thus, this profile is the identikit of the patient who will possibly die in APCU. In general, however, mortality rate remains quite low, confirming that most patients are admitted early along the course of disease for many different reasons. Pain and dyspnea, as well the symptom burden represented by total ESAS recorded at admission, were also found to be independently associated with death. This is consistent with the observation of a Korean study (14), in which patients who died in the APCU while waiting transfer to hospice were more likely to have significantly higher symptom burden such as drowsiness and dyspnea, and to be male. Of interest, the mortality rate was 33%, possibly due to less hospice bed availability. An increased symptom burden in the last days of life is expected when assessing the trajectory of symptom burden in the last seven days (15). Such symptom burden was also observed in the present study as an independent factor associated to death. The high symptom burden is likely because patients admitted to APCUs are typically admitted for their level of distress and refractory symptoms (16, 17).
In a retrospectiv Japanese study a greater risk of dying was independently correlated with a high level of baseline symptoms such as dyspnea, drowsiness, low level of baseline anxiety and transfer from emergency center (18). A retrospective study aimed to assess factors associated with increased likelihood of mortality in APCU. Of 500 patients admitted to the APCU, 25% of them died. Factors that were associated with death in APCU were younger age, admission from another oncology floor, some laboratory findings, such as hypo/hypernatremia, high blood ureanitrogen, and some clinical features, including high heart rate, high respiration rate, and the use supplemental oxygen use (19). Signs of imminent death (heart rate, respiatory rate, use of oxygen) are likely to appear in the last days of life, suggesting that in thsi retrsopective stucy ( 19), patients were admitted when they were close to death. In another retropective study, independent factors predicting 72-h mortality after transfer to APCU were no prior palliative care consult, no advance care directive, lower performance status, lower self-care index, and lower blood albumin level (20). Of interest, 20% of transferred patients died within 72 h of arrival on the APCU. In the present prospective study we did not used blood tests, as our intention was to distinguish patients according to process (referral) or charge of symptoms, rather than laboratory findings, which are potentially reversible after proper treatments. Differences in Health Care system and setting of referral may explain the different findings, Indeed, in this study most patients who died were referred from home palliative care, possibly because the clinical conditions, for example cognitive failure, pain or dyspnea, were difficult to manage at home.
The principal limitations of this study lie on the single center experience compared to the large variability in APCU models. A further limitation is based on the lack of examination of other specific data, for example heart rate or renal failure, or extrapolating a prediction model. Such clinical signs, however, develop in the last days of life, not necessarily at admission to APCU, which may last several days. However, the prospective design and the findings provided a typical identikit of patients with higher probabilities to die after admission in APCU in a Health system where home palliative care is particularly developed.
In conclusion mortality risk in APCU is associated with home palliative care referral, high symptom burden, cognitive failure, and general worsening of the clinical condition, as well being off-therapy. More proactive and timely end-of-life care is needed for these patients.