Spatial Analysis of Fire Incidents and Urban Vulnerabilities in the Accra Metropolis of Ghana

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5285054/v1

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Spatial Analysis of Fire Incidents and Urban Vulnerabilities in the Accra Metropolis of Ghana

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5285054/v1

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Fire incidents in the Accra Metropolis have caused significant damage to property and human lives over the years. However, spatial data on the distribution and causes of these incidents are inadequate in Ghana. This study analyzes the spatial distribution of fire occurrences in the Accra Metropolitan Assembly (AMA) from 2010 to 2022, classifying land uses into commercial, industrial, residential, and institutional categories. Data from the Ghana National Fire Service were analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, including ArcMap, Getis-Ord hotspot analysis, and Moran's I autocorrelation. The study found that the Central Business District (CBD), primarily serving commercial functions, was the hotspot zone for fire incidents. Poorly planned residential areas also suffered from frequent fire outbreaks. The study attributes fire incidents in the CBD to inadequate urban planning, characterized by unapproved structures serving as squatter settlements. Illegal electricity connections associated with these unregulated buildings were identified as a proximate cause of fires in and around the CBD. The spatial analysis revealed changing patterns of fire incidents over time, with some well-planned areas experiencing unexpected increases in fire cases in recent years. This research highlights the critical relationship between urban planning and fire risk management in the Accra Metropolis. It emphasizes the need for targeted interventions in high-risk areas and comprehensive urban renewal projects to minimize fire hazards. The findings provide valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers, and fire management authorities to develop more effective strategies for fire prevention and response in rapidly growing African cities.

Urban Studies

City Management and Urban Policy

Geographic Information Systems

Spatial Distribution

Fire Incidents

Accra Metropolis

Urban Planning

Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Land Use Analysis

The global population is experiencing unprecedented growth, with projections indicating an increase from 7.7 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050 [1]. This surge is particularly evident in urban areas, where over half of the world's population now resides. By 2030, urban dwellers are expected to reach 5 billion, with much of this urbanization concentrated in Africa and Asia [2]. This rapid urban expansion brings with it a host of challenges, including the proliferation of unplanned and unregulated settlements, especially in developing nations [3,4]. Fire propagation is governed by three key elements: fuel source, oxygen, and ignition source [5]. In urban settings, the interplay of these factors with the built environment can lead to catastrophic outcomes, especially in areas characterized by informal settlements and inadequate infrastructure [6].

Cities are growing unabated, often without adequate planning and regulation. It has led to increased vulnerability to various disasters, with fire outbreaks emerging as a particularly pressing concern. Urban fires have become a significant challenge for governments worldwide, but their impact is especially pronounced in low resource countries [6,7]. Recent studies have highlighted the strong correlation between urban sprawl, poor spatial planning, and the frequency of fire incidents in cities [8,9].

Globally, fire-related deaths are staggering, with over 300,000 fatalities annually and millions more suffering permanent injuries [10]. Alarmingly, low- and middle-income countries bear the brunt of this burden, accounting for approximately 95% of fire incidents [11]. This disproportionate impact underscores the critical role that urban planning plays in fire prevention and management, particularly in the context of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world. In Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically in Ghana, urban fires have increasingly devastating effects. Researchers have identified multiple contributing factors, including rapid population growth, industrialization, urbanization, unreliable power supply, negligence, illegal electrical connections, and weak institutional frameworks [12, 13]. Additionally, challenges such as limited access to fire incidents, delayed response times, and insufficient firefighting resources exacerbate the problem [14].

Despite the establishment of the Ghana National Fire Service, major cities like Kumasi and Accra continue to grapple with frequent and destructive fire outbreaks [15]. Notable incidents include multiple fires at the Kumasi Central Market and conflagrations at key government facilities. The tragic fire and flood disaster of June 3, 2015, in Accra, which claimed hundreds of lives, stands as a stark reminder of the urgent need for improved urban planning and disaster management strategies [16].

Recent advancements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies offer promising avenues for addressing urban fire risks [17]. These tools enable comprehensive fire emergency response analysis by integrating crucial data on street networks, hazardous material locations, and pre-fire survey information [18]. This approach underscores the importance of understanding how urban settlements are spatially structured for mitigating fire risks.

This study investigates the relationship between urban sprawl and fire incidents in the Greater Accra Metropolis. Specifically, it seeks to:

Analyze the spatial distribution of fire incidents in the Accra Metropolitan area
Examine the underlying causes of fire incidents in the Accra Metropolitan Assembly

By employing advanced spatial analysis techniques, this research aims to contribute valuable insights to urban planning and fire management strategies in rapidly growing African cities.

Fire has been an integral part of human civilization, serving essential purposes from cooking to heating. However, it also poses significant risks to people, property, and the environment, potentially causing physical injuries, psychological trauma, economic losses, and even fatalities. The Accra Metropolis, like many urban areas in developing countries, has experienced rapid urbanization, partly driven by rural-urban migration. This population increase has been correlated with a rise in fire incidents globally [6].

2.1 Urban Sprawl, Land Use and Fire Incidents in the Accra Metropolis

Urban development can occur without sprawl, but sprawl invariably induces urban growth [15]. The consequences of this growth, whether positive or negative, depend on its pattern, process, and outcomes [4]. In the Accra metropolis, urbanization and urban sprawl have a particularly negative effect on fire incidents. The dense population, diverse land uses, and often poor land use planning create conditions conducive to fire outbreaks and rapid spread. Studies have shown a consistent increase in fire incidents in Ghana. [12] found that fire cases increased annually from 2000 to 2013, attributing this trend to rapid population growth, industrialization, and other factors. More recent research by [13] has highlighted how urban informality, often a result of rapid, unplanned urbanization, exacerbates fire risks in Ghanaian cities.

Globally, fire incidents are frequently associated with increased land use intensity [19]. While most human-caused fires are accidental, arson is also a significant factor and tends to increase with land use intensity [20]. A recent study by [9] in Australia found that changes in land use, particularly urban densification, significantly impact fire risk patterns.

In the context of developing countries, [21] study of Dhaka City revealed that residential areas had a higher share of fire incidents compared to other land uses. Interestingly, they found more fire incidents in planned residential areas than in slums, challenging common perceptions. This finding was corroborated by [22], who also identified a higher frequency of fire incidents in residential areas.

2.2 Causes of Fire Outbreaks in Accra

The causes of fire outbreaks include various factors such as electrical faults, cooking accidents, heating malfunctions, intentional acts of arson, and smoking. These factors can lead to devastating events that significantly risk lives and property. Additionally, wildfires can be caused by human activities or natural occurrences like lightning, with dry weather, drought, and strong winds exacerbating the situation. Accra and Ghana at large have been the subject of ongoing research. [23] identified several factors, including improper electrical fittings, substandard materials, defective generators, power fluctuations, and illegal electricity tapping. More recent studies, such as that by [15], have emphasized the role of climate change in exacerbating fire risks in Ghanaian cities, particularly through increased temperatures and prolonged dry seasons. Brown-Gaisie, a former chief fire officer in Ghana, reported that between 2012 and 2015, domestic fires accounted for 41.02% of all fire cases nationwide, with 24,500 fires occurring during this period.

2.3 GIS and Fire Spatial Distribution

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have become invaluable tools for analyzing and managing fire incidents. As [17] demonstrate, GIS-based spatial analyses are well-suited for fire and rescue services, offering effective data management and powerful analytical capabilities for exploring spatial and temporal patterns of fire events. Advanced geo-visualization techniques, such as kernel density estimation (KDE), can reveal spatial variations in fire risks [24]. Recent developments in web-based GIS platforms, coupled with real-time data collection sensors, now support dynamic resource allocation and high-risk area identification [17].

Research has increasingly focused on understanding the relationship between fire occurrences and various environmental and socioeconomic factors. While wildfire frequency is closely linked to fuel availability, local climate, and topography [25], urban fires are more influenced by socioeconomic variables such as population density, building conditions, and household characteristics [26, 27].

Recent advancements in GIS-based modeling, including cellular automata (CA) models, have enhanced our ability to simulate fire behavior and predict wildfire paths [28]. These models, when integrated with evacuation planning tools, can significantly improve emergency response strategies [29].

This research aims to build upon these recent advancements, focusing on the spatial-temporal dynamics of fire incidents in the urban context of Accra over the past decade. By leveraging the latest GIS technologies and analytical approaches which seek to provide valuable insights for improving fire prevention and management strategies in rapidly growing African cities.

3.1 Study Area

The Accra Metropolitan Area (AMA) serves as both the regional capital of Greater Accra and the national capital of Ghana. AMA lies along the Gulf of Guinea and is bordered by Ga La Nkwantanang Madina, Ga South Municipal, and La Dadekotopon Municipal. The metropolis covers an area of 139.674 km², according to Ghana Statistical Services [30]. Accra's population has grown rapidly in recent years. The metropolitan area's population reached 2,721,000 in 2024, representing a 2.29% increase from the previous year. This growth trend has been consistent, with the population increasing by 2.11% in 2023 and 1.88% in 2022 [31]. This accelerating growth underscores the growing urbanization pressures facing the city.

The geology of AMA is diverse, comprising Precambrian Dahomeyan Schists, Granodiorites, Granites Gneiss, and Amphibolites, as well as late Precambrian Togo Series formations. The coastline features resistant rock outcrops, and sandy beaches, and is subject to severe erosion due to its exposure and proximity to the continental shelf. AMA experiences a dry equatorial climate with two distinct rainy seasons. The first occurs from May to mid-July, while the second spans from mid-August to October. The area receives about 730mm of rainfall annually, the lowest in Ghana.

Administratively, AMA is divided into ten Sub Metropolitan District Councils, encompassing 72 communities and 76 Electoral Areas. The vegetation has been significantly altered over the past century but still includes shrubland, grassland, and coastal mangroves. As the economic hub of Ghana, AMA hosts a diverse range of industries, including manufacturing, oil companies, financial institutions, telecommunications, tourism, and educational establishments. This economic diversity attracts people from across the country and beyond, contributing to the city's rapid growth and urbanization.

3.2 Study Design

This research employed an exploratory design with a focus on quantitative analysis. We selected AMA as our study area due to the high frequency and magnitude of fire incidents recorded over the past decade.

3.3 Data Collection

We obtained spatial data on fire incidents from 2010 to 2022 from the Ghana National Fire Service through the Remote Sensing and GIS Laboratory at the Department of Geography and Resource Development, University of Ghana. The data categorizes fire incidents into four classes: commercial, industrial, residential (domestic), and institutional.

3.4 Data Analysis

ArcGIS software was used, specifically ArcMap and Arc Toolbox, for our spatial analysis. This analytical approach includes:

Interpolation: To create continuous surfaces representing fire incident density across AMA.
Getis-Ord hotspot analysis: To identify statistically significant clusters of high-fire incident occurrences.
Moran's I autocorrelation: To determine the statistical significance of the spatial distribution of fire incidents.

To support this analysis of urban planning's role in fire incidents, I extracted Google Earth images from 2020 focusing on two contrasting areas: James Town (representing older, less planned areas) and East Legon (representing newer, more planned developments). This multi-faceted approach allowed me to comprehensively analyze the spatial patterns of fire incidents in AMA and explore their relationship with urban development.

Spatial Distribution of Fire Outbreaks in the Accra Metropolis (2010-2022)

This analysis aimed to uncover the spatial patterns of fire outbreaks in the Accra Metropolis and identify the land use types most susceptible to fire incidents. Land use in the Accra Metropolis was classified into four major categories: residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional.

4.1 Fire Incidents in AMA: 2010-2015

The analysis of fire incidents from 2010 to 2015 revealed a clear spatial pattern (Figure 2a). Commercial and industrial areas experienced the highest frequency of fire outbreaks, while institutional land-use areas had the lowest incidence. The Central Business District (CBD) of Accra and its immediate surroundings emerged as the epicenter of fire incidents, with a noticeable decrease in fire occurrences as one moves towards the peri-urban areas.

To further validate these observations, I conducted a Getis-Ord hotspot analysis (Figure 2b). This analysis confirmed the CBD and its neighboring areas as statistically significant hotspots for fire incidents during this period. The concentration of fire outbreaks in the CBD can be attributed to several factors including the proliferation of unplanned and unregulated structures; the high density of commercial and industrial activities; and the presence of informal settlements and slums [8, 32].

These findings, again align with previous research by [32] and [8], who identified poor urban planning as a major contributor to fire incidents in developing countries' cities. The CBD of Accra, characterized by unplanned and unstructured buildings, with numerous slums in and around it, exemplifies this issue. The prevalence of fire incidents in these areas underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions. As [33] noted, understanding the spatial distribution of fire risks is crucial for effective policymaking, urban planning, and fire management strategies.

4.1.1 Moran's I Autocorrelation (2010-2015)

To provide a statistical foundation for these observations, I performed Moran's I autocorrelation analysis on the 2010-2015 fire incident data (Table 1). The results were not statistically significant (p-value = 0.56), indicating a random distribution of fire incidents across the metropolis during this period. This statistical randomness suggests that the fire incidents that occurred throughout the AMA from 2010 to 2015 were not confined to specific areas. However, it's important to note that visual inspection of the data (Figure and 2a and Figure 2b) still shows a higher concentration of incidents in the CBD and certain suburbs like James Town and Old Fadama.

This apparent contradiction between statistical and visual analyses illustrates the complexity of fire incident patterns in urban areas. It suggests that while certain areas may have higher visual concentrations of fire incidents, the overall pattern across the metropolis was not statistically clustered during this period.

Table 1: Fire Incidents, 2010 to 2015

Global Moran's I Statistics
Moran's Index	0.035411
Expected Index:	-0.011364
Variance	0.006562
z-score	0.577417
P-value	0.563658

Distance is measured in Meters

4.2 Fire Incidents in AMA: 2016-2019

Analysis of fire incidents from 2016 to 2019 revealed a more defined spatial pattern (Figure 3a). The CBD and North Industrial Areas (NIA) emerged as clear hotspots for fire incidents, aligning with their predominant commercial and industrial land uses. This period also saw a notable increase in fire incidents in residential areas close to the CBD, particularly in low-income neighborhoods where proper land use planning is often lacking. Specific areas identified as high-risk zones include James Town, Mamprobi, Mateheko, Nima, Odorkor, and parts of Dansoman.

The Getis-Ord hotspot analysis (Figure 3b) statistically confirmed these areas were significant hotspots for fire incidents during this period. Interestingly, well-planned residential areas such as Legon, East Legon, GIMPA, and Airport Residential Areas emerged as cold spots, experiencing fewer fire incidents. This stark contrast provides compelling evidence for the role of urban planning in fire prevention.

2.2.1 Autocorrelation Results for Fire Incidents from 2016 to 2019

I employed Moran's I autocorrelation analysis to assess the statistical significance of fire incident distribution in AMA from 2016 to 2019. This method helps determine whether fire incidents are randomly distributed, clustered, or dispersed across the metropolitan area.

As shown in Table 2, the results were statistically significant (p = 0.008) with a positive Moran's Index. This finding suggests that fire outbreaks in AMA from 2016 to 2019 were clustered, indicating that fire incidents were concentrated in specific locations rather than randomly distributed across the metropolis.

These results validate our earlier findings illustrated in Figure 2a, which showed that most fire cases occurred in and around the CBD and other low-income settlements during this period. This clustering of fire incidents in specific areas underscores the need for targeted fire prevention and management strategies in these high-risk zones.

Table 2: Fire Incidents, 2017 to 2022

Global Moran's I Statistics
Moran's Index	0.178809
Expected Index:	-0.009901
Variance	0.005185
z-score	2.620635
P-value	0.008777

Distance is measured in Meters

4.3 Fire Incidents in AMA in 2020-2022

Figure 4a presents interpolated results of fire outbreaks in AMA from 2020 to 2022. The pattern observed is like those in Figures 2a and 3a, with fire outbreaks still predominantly occurring in and around the CBD, Abosssey Okai, industrial areas, and low-income residential settlements such as James Town, Mamprobi, Nima, Old Fadama, Darkuman, and parts of Dansoman. However, an interesting contrast emerged when comparing the incidents of 2020-2022 with those of 2010- 2015. Areas around East Legon, typically considered high-income residential areas, recorded a notable number of fire cases. This unexpected pattern complicates our understanding of fire risk distribution in the metropolis.

The Getis-Ord hotspot analysis (Figure 4b) revealed that these high-income settlements (East Legon and neighboring communities) were hotspot zones during this period. Interestingly, while the CBD was not identified as a hotspot zone in 2020, cold spot zones were found outside the CBD. Areas such as Achimota, Agbogba, and Akweteyman, which are peri-urban settlements and generally better planned than indigenous settlements like James Town and Nima, were identified as cold spots. This suggests a potential shift in fire incident patterns, with a relative decline in CBD fire incidents as of 2020.

These findings highlight the complex and evolving nature of fire risk in urban areas. While poorly planned, low-income areas continue to be at high risk, the emergence of fire hotspots in well-planned, high-income areas suggests that other factors beyond urban planning may be influencing fire risk. This could include factors such as increased use of electrical appliances, changes in building materials, or shifts in household behaviors [26].

4.3.1 Autocorrelation Results for Fire Incidents from 2020-2022

In Table 3, Moran's I autocorrelation results for fire incidents from 2020-2022 are not statistically significant (p-value = 0.220). This indicates that fire outbreaks in AMA during this period were randomly distributed, in contrast to the clustering pattern observed in the 2016-2019 period.

This shift from a clustered to a random distribution is noteworthy and warrants further investigation. It suggests that while poor urban planning remains a significant factor in fire risk, other variables may be gaining importance. The random distribution of fire incidents, including those in well-planned areas like Legon and the Airport Residential area, indicates that fire risk is becoming more pervasive across the metropolis.

This finding underscores the need for comprehensive fire prevention strategies that go beyond addressing urban planning issues. It also highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive management in urban fire prevention.

Table 3: Fire Incidents, 2020-2022

Global Moran's I Statistics
Moran's Index	0.544647
Expected Index:	-0.009346
Variance	0.204710
z-score	1.224431
P-value	0.220790

4.4 Urban Planning and Slum Communities in AMA

Analysis of aerial photographs (Figures 5a and 5b) reveals the complex urban fabric of AMA, particularly in the CBD. The CBD, originally intended for primarily commercial functions, now hosts a mix of industrial, institutional, and residential uses. This functional integration, while potentially beneficial for urban vitality, has led to congestion and planning challenges. Of particular concern is the proliferation of poor and unregulated residential structures in the CBD. These structures, often associated with illegal electrical connections, have been identified as major fire hazards [12]. The merging of these unplanned structures with indigenous communities like James Town and Chorkor (as shown in Figure 5b) exacerbates the fire risk in these areas.

In contrast, Figures 6a and 6b illustrate that properly planned built-up areas, such as East Legon, experience fewer fire disasters. This glaring difference in fire incidence between planned and unplanned areas reinforces the critical role of urban planning in fire prevention and management.

These findings align with recent research by [15], which emphasizes the link between urban planning, climate change, and disaster risk in Ghanaian cities. They also emphasize the challenges posed by urban informality in Ghana in [13]. The contrast between areas like James Town and East Legon illustrates the socio-spatial inequalities in fire risk within AMA. This inequality in risk exposure underscores the need for targeted interventions in high-risk areas, as well as broader efforts to improve urban planning and infrastructure across the metropolis.

These findings highlight the complex interplay between urban planning, socio-economic factors, and fire risk in AMA. While poor urban planning remains a significant contributor to fire risk, particularly in the CBD and low-income areas, the changing patterns observed in recent years suggest that a more nuanced and comprehensive approach to fire prevention and management is needed. This approach should consider not only urban planning aspects but also socio-economic factors, building practices, and household behaviors to reduce fire risk throughout the metropolis.

This study has provided valuable insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of fire incidents in the Accra Metropolitan Area from 2010 to 2022, highlighting the critical role of urban planning in fire risk management. Through the application of GIS techniques and statistical analyses, several key findings have emerged. The CBD of Accra consistently emerged as a hotspot for fire incidents throughout the study period. This concentration is primarily attributed to the area's commercial and industrial activities, coupled with poor urban planning and the proliferation of unregulated structures. While the CBD remains a high-risk area, the study observed a shift in fire incident patterns over time. The 2020–2022 period saw an unexpected increase in fire incidents in some well-planned, high-income areas like East Legon, suggesting that factors beyond urban planning may be influencing fire risk.

The study demonstrated the link between urban planning and fire risk. Poorly planned, low-income residential areas near the CBD consistently experienced higher fire incidents compared to well-planned residential areas. This underscores the critical importance of proper urban planning in fire prevention and management. Moran's I autocorrelation analyses revealed that fire incidents were randomly distributed in the 2010–2015 period, clustered in the 2016–2019 period, and again randomly distributed in the 2020–2022 period. This changing pattern highlights the complex and dynamic nature of fire risk in urban environments.

Finally, this study demonstrates the power of GIS and spatial analysis in understanding and addressing urban fire risks. By providing a comprehensive picture of fire incident patterns in Accra, it offers a valuable tool for urban planners, policymakers, and fire management authorities. The findings underscore the urgent need for improved urban planning and targeted interventions to reduce fire risks in Accra. Moreover, the study's methodology and insights can serve as a model for similar analyses in other rapidly urbanizing areas in Africa and beyond, contributing to broader efforts in urban disaster risk reduction and sustainable urban development.

These findings have significant implications for urban planning, fire management, and policy development in Accra and potentially other rapidly growing African cities. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive urban renewal project in AMA, particularly focusing on the CBD and surrounding low-income areas. This should aim to improve infrastructure, regulate building practices, and enhance fire safety measures. The findings should inform the development of more robust fire safety policies and building regulations, ensuring they are adaptable to the changing patterns of fire risk across different urban areas.

Fire prevention and management resources should be strategically allocated, with a focus on identifying high-risk areas. This includes not only the CBD but also emerging risk areas in previously low-risk neighborhoods. Additionally, the establishment of a continuous monitoring system using GIS technology would allow for real-time tracking of fire incidents and rapid response to emerging risk patterns.

Implementing widespread community education programs on fire prevention and safety, particularly in high-risk areas, could significantly reduce fire incidents. Similarly, future fire management strategies should adopt an interdisciplinary approach, considering not only urban planning aspects but also socio-economic factors, climate change impacts, and technological advancements.

This study of the spatial distribution of fire incidents in the Accra Metropolis provides significant insights, but it also has several limitations that should be acknowledged:

Data Limitations: The study relies heavily on data from the Ghana National Fire Service, which may not capture all fire incidents, especially those that go unreported. Additionally, the classification of fire incidents into broad categories like commercial, industrial, residential, and institutional may overlook the nuanced differences within these categories.
Spatial Resolution: The use of GIS tools such as ArcMap and Getis-Ord hotspot analysis provides valuable insights into spatial patterns, but the resolution of available data might limit the precision of these analyses. High-resolution data could offer more detailed insights into micro-level variations in fire risk.
Focus on Urban Planning: While poor urban planning is highlighted as a key factor in fire risk, other potential influences such as climate change, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices are not explored in depth. These factors could also play significant roles in influencing fire incidents.
Generalization of Findings: The findings are specific to the Accra Metropolis and may not be directly applicable to other regions with different socio-economic and environmental contexts. Comparative studies with other cities could provide broader insights.
Policy Implications: While the study suggests policy interventions, it does not evaluate existing policies or their effectiveness in managing fire risks. A detailed policy analysis could complement the spatial findings and provide actionable recommendations.

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the Ghana National Fire Service for providing valuable data essential to this study. Special thanks are extended to the lab assistants at the Remote Sensing and GIS Laboratory, University of Ghana, for their support with data access and analysis. Their assistance was instrumental in facilitating the research process.

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Spatial Analysis of Fire Incidents and Urban Vulnerabilities in the Accra Metropolis of Ghana

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Abstract

Figures

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

2.1 Urban Sprawl, Land Use and Fire Incidents in the Accra Metropolis

2.2 Causes of Fire Outbreaks in Accra

2.3 GIS and Fire Spatial Distribution

3. METHODS

3.1 Study Area

3.2 Study Design

3.3 Data Collection

3.4 Data Analysis

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Fire Incidents in AMA: 2010-2015

4.1.1 Moran's I Autocorrelation (2010-2015)

4.2 Fire Incidents in AMA: 2016-2019

2.2.1 Autocorrelation Results for Fire Incidents from 2016 to 2019

4.3 Fire Incidents in AMA in 2020-2022

4.3.1 Autocorrelation Results for Fire Incidents from 2020-2022

4.4 Urban Planning and Slum Communities in AMA

5. Conclusion

6. Policy Implications

7. Limitations

Declarations

Acknowledgments

References

Additional Declarations

Status:

Version 1