Phenology is the study of timing of various life cycle events as described by Charles Morren in 1850’s (Demaree & Rutishauser, 2011). In plants the timing of events like putting out of new leaves (flushing), flowering and fruiting, not only need to match environmental factors like light availability, water availability etc., but also to the availability of pollinators and dispersers. Plants tend to augment productivity and fitness by matching the timing of their activity with peak availability of all these factors (van Schaik et al., 1993). However, phenology is more than just timing. There are parameters like duration, intensity, synchrony etc. that are also essential for plant fitness (Elzinga et al., 2007; Rathcke & Lacey, 1985). All these parameters, including timing, exhibit significant variation across large spatial scales. There is not only variation in phenology across communities but often, there is significant variation across species in a community (Luna-Nieves et al., 2017). In temperate region, being limited by low temperatures, species mainly initiate flushing and flowering in the spring (Tooke & Battey, 2010). In tropical regions including mangrove ecosystems, however, not being limited by temperature, light and water availability mainly dominates phenology of species (van Schaik et al., 1993).
The insolation-limitation hypothesis (Sun et al., 1996) states that unless limited by water availability, community-wide leafing and flowering peaks in tropical and subtropical forests should coincide with the period of maximal insolation. Therefore, it is expected that phenology of the mangrove species would be mainly driven by light availability. However, mangrove species grow in high salinity regions, and although they do not experience physical drought, species might experience physiological drought (Ball, 1988). As a physiological adaptation, such species tend to reduce water uptake and water expenditure. Besides these, other factors like pH and soil nutrient might also affect production and accumulation of photosynthates, thereby indirectly influence phenology of mangrove species (Torres et al., 2018).
Moreover, apart from the onset dates of events and the peak dates of activity, other aspects depicted by the temporal pattern of phenological activity like duration, frequency, synchrony, mean and maximum intensity, and skewness had not been systematically studied previously. For every phenophase, duration signifies the length of the activity period, frequency quantifies the occurrences within a calendar year, synchrony describes the overlap in timing of events between individuals in a species, intensity measures the magnitude of phenophase activity, and skewness characterizes the distribution of cumulative activity across all individuals of a species throughout an annual cycle. Apart from timing, these parameters play crucial role in plant survival and productivity. For example, reduced water availability may increase the duration of leafless period in some species, reducing the annual accumulation of photosynthates, needed for general growth, flowering and fruiting. Lack of strong environmental cues, leading to reduced flowering intensity and synchrony among conspecifics, may limit mating opportunities and directly impact plant fitness. In tropical mangrove community, as sunlight is the limiting factor for flushing and flowering, therefore, these phenophases may coincide with maximum availability of sunlight. Hence, tend to show activity early in the growing season. This results in higher activity towards the start of the season, and leading to positive skewness. However, these combined effects of light, water, and nutrients on plant phenology, and their interactions, are still not well-understood.
Species growing in wetter sites generally exhibit longer periods of phenophase (Aronson et al. 1992; de Vasconcelos, de Araujo & Lopes 2010). As example, in tropical forests, duration of flowering was around 2.5 months (Morellato et al. 2000). In the context of the same site, species that undergo flushing during the early dry season tend to initiate flowering sooner (Lacerda et al. 2018) and exhibit an extended flowering duration compared to species that flower later in the dry season (Bhat 1992; Crimmins, Crimmins & Bertelsen 2013; Borges, Henrique & Prado 2014). The timing of flushing and flowering is anticipated to be interconnected and influenced by similar environmental cues (van Schaik, Terborgh & Wright 1993). Bawa et al. (2003) found that the duration of flowering is inversely correlated with the frequency of flowering. Moreover, since fruiting occurs after flowering, it is anticipated that their phenological characteristics are interconnected. But there were no similar studies investigated a comparable connection in vegetative phases or explored the correlations between synchrony, intensity, skewness, duration, and frequency.
Given such a gross lack of understanding in phenology of co-existing species, especially in the Indian Sundarbans, this study aims to investigate the various aspects of phenology of several important mangrove species, thereby revealing the relationships between duration, frequency, synchrony, and intra-specific variation in a phenophases. In this context, the following questions were asked:
a) Is there any seasonality of different phenophases at species ensemble, and, what is the timing of their peak activity?
Following the insolation limitation hypothesis, it is expected that phenophases will exhibit a distinct seasonality with their peak timing coinciding with maximum light availability during the dry season.
b) What is the variation of different supplementary parameters of phenology at the species ensemble and across different species?
Species showing timing of peak activity distributed throughout dry season are expected to show significant variation in parameters like duration, intensity, synchrony etc.
c) What is the variation in timing and other phenology parameters across the two sites?
It is predicted that there will be significant difference in phenology parameters among sites with different characteristics like pH, salinity etc.
d) What is the relationship between different phenological parameters and their importance in explaining the variation between species?
Moreover, relationship between these supplementary parameters was studied to understand if and how these parameters influence each other. For example, in case of flushing, it is expected that, species with early activity have a long duration and low intensity and overlap, and thereby low synchrony between individuals. Similarly for flowering, limited resources are likely to impose a trade-off between duration and intensity. Besides duration, intensity, and synchrony, only a few studies have reported skewness of phenology activity. While it is often anticipated that, phenophase intensity curves would follow normal distribution, studies like Thomson (1980) have reported a positively skewed flowering pattern. Thereby, to understand how variation in species activity affects other phenology parameters, relationship between skewness, frequency, duration, intensity, and synchrony was examined. Apart from these, variation in phenology between species in a multivariate space was also studied to understand if different parameters influence variation similarly and what parameters contribute most to such variation.