The wide natural distribution of E. urophylla (from 0 to 3,000 m in altitude) and considering altitude as one of the main sources of climatic and ecotypic variation for the species (Silva et al. 2023) justify the high values of genetic diversity observed (\(\:{H}_{o}\) and \(\:{H}_{e}\)). Although the observed genetic diversity indices were higher than the average values reported for the species, they are consistent with the results of Yang et al. (2020), who reported \(\:{H}_{o}\) values ranging from 0.30 to 0.38 and \(\:{H}_{e}\) values from 0.27 to 0.35, using SNPs.
This diversity can be explained by several factors, including artificial selection in the orchards, which reduced the orchard populations by 90%, altering their genetic composition in a targeted manner (Frankham et al. 2010), the structure, the larger number of individuals sampled per island (Table 1), and the ecological diversity of the collection sites, including islands with volcanic activities. Although the high heterozygosity observed on Adonara Island may be attributed by artificial selection (90% thinning), the low \(\:{N}_{e}\) value (37.4) could indicate reduced genetic diversity in regenerating individuals, particularly in areas near Mount Boleng (Hodge and Dvorak 2015). Of the six populations evaluated, five (Dua Muda, Gonehama, Lamahela, Watololong, and Lamalota) are located only 2.5 km from the volcano, which has a recent history of eruptions (Hodge and Dvorak 2015). Populations in areas of recent volcanic activity may possibly be facing greater selective pressure and limited regeneration, which contributes to the reduced \(\:{N}_{e}\:\)value observed.
A direct comparison of SNP data with microsatellites is difficult because of the different mutation rates. Studies that used microsatellites, such as Tripiana et al. (2007), Payn et al. (2008), Lu et al. (2018), Pupin et al. (2019), and Barros et al. (2022), reported higher heterozygosity values, indicating that E. urophylla consistently exhibits high genetic diversity. Additionally, Payn et al. (2007) reported high haplotypic diversity (\(\:h\)), ranging from 0 (Flores and Lembata) to 0.88 (Wetar), which further supports the high genetic variability of the populations. Despite the low genetic differentiation both between islands (0 < \(\:{F}_{ST}\) ≤ 0.05 and among populations within islands (0 < \(\:{F}_{ST}\) ≤ 0.04) (Wright, 1978) (Fig. 2A, B and C), the values obtained were higher than those found in previous studies (0.03 <\(\:{F}_{ST}\)≤0.044) (Payn et al. 2008; Tripiana et al. 2007; Lu et al. 2018). According to Wright (1978), an \(\:{F}_{ST}\) value < 0.05, even if small, can still indicate the presence of significant evolutionary processes, such as natural selection, genetic drift, or migration, that influence the genetic structure of these populations.
Among the factors that may have contributed to the reduced genetic divergence observed between islands are gene flow via pollen facilitated by the east-west wind speed and direction (Payn et al. 2007; Dvorak et al. 2008; Payn et al. 2008), and cyclonic events occurring once every 50 years that may promote long-distance gene flow (Dvorak et al. 2008).
Additionally, the low differentiation can be explained by ancestry (\(\:K\)=3) (Figs. 3 and 4C), considering the geological hypotheses and colonization routes from east to west across these islands (Timor → Wetar → Adonara → Lembata) (Payn et al. 2007). Geological and paleontological evidence indicates the existence of the supercontinent Gondwana (Rogers 1996), which included the natural occurrence area of E. urophylla. During the Pleistocene, the islands of Flores, Adonara, and Lembata were still connected. Approximately 11,700 years ago, they got separated due to sea level increase following deglaciation (Dvorak et al. 2008; Voris 2000).
Another factor that may explain the low genetic differentiation is the reproductive biology of the species and the geographical distance between populations (Figs. 2D and 2E). Although it allows up to 10% self-fertilization, E. urophylla is predominantly allogamous, which favors cross-pollination (Pryor 1975; House and Bell 1994). Regarding gene flow, if via pollen, it is mainly transported by bees (Eldridge et al. 1993) with a range of over 8 km (Dick et al. 2003). Via seeds, dispersal by wind and mammals contributes to long-distance gene flow (Tripiana et al. 2007). The high gene flow between populations on each island prevents genetic differentiation due to the high rate of allele migration from one population to another (House and Bell 1994).
The higher observed heterozygosity in Timor confirms its importance as the first island colonized (Kitada et al. 2021; Payn et al. 2007), since populations closer to the ancestral population likely had more opportunities for evolutionary events such as mutations than more recent populations (Liu et al. 2006). Another factor contributing to the higher diversity observed on this island was the conservation status of the areas at the time of collection, which, as in Wetar, were more preserved areas with more wild populations and a lower risk of genetic vulnerability, with most of the vegetation within the boundaries of the Mount Mutis Forest Park (Pepe et al. 2004). Additionally, it is important to note that Timor had a limited number of individuals (N = 11 and \(\:{N}_{e}\)=3.1), whose seeds were not obtained from progenies (families) but rather from a seed bulk.
According to the conservation status (Pepe et al. 2004), the high haplotypic diversity (\(\:h\)=0.8), and the fact that it was one of the first islands colonized by the species (Payn et al. 2007), the populations from Wetar Island were expected to have high genetic diversity and a large effective population size ( \(\:{N}_{e}\)= 213). However, the low\(\:{\:H}_{o}\) and \(\:{H}_{e}\) values observed on this island, compared to the others, can be explained by gene flow between populations due to their short geographical distances (1.86–24.19 km) (Fig. 1).
Therefore, in our understanding, the determining factor for the differentiation of Wetar from the other islands is geographical isolation, as it rules out the possibility that it originated from a founder effect resulting from a remnant population after a volcanic activity (Figs. 1 and 2). Wetar may be undergoing unique selective pressures or have a genetic dynamic that differs from the other studied populations; thus, a more detailed analysis, such as studies of gene flow or natural selection, may help clarify these observations.
The proportion of individuals from the islands of Wetar and Timor sharing the same ancestral population suggests that the colonization of E. urophylla occurred from Timor (Fig. 3) (Payn et al. 2007). In this context, two findings provide evidence for this colonization: (1) the occurrence of E. urophylla in the Irian Jaya region of New Guinea, alongside E. pellita, followed by migrations to Timor (Moura 2004) and subsequently to Wetar; (2) Timor was the first island to be colonized, given its high diversity and proximity to other centers of origin for Eucalyptus species, such as Australia and Papua New Guinea (Payn et al. 2007). These findings are not mutually exclusive; they indicate a colonization order from Timor to Wetar. Geographical isolation and restricted interbreeding among individuals on the same island may have contributed to the genetic composition of Wetar becoming progressively more homogeneous over generations (Figs. 3, 4, and 5). As observed in studies of genetic diversity and population structure, the E. urophylla individuals sampled from the seven islands group into two to, at most, four genetic clusters, according to their genetic distances (House and Bell 1994; Payn et al. 2008; Lu et al. 2018; Barros et al. 2022).
Another factor that may have contributed to the high diversity observed in the species is the presence of individuals resulting from natural hybridization and introgression with E. alba (Pepe et al. 2004; Dvorak et al. 2008). Both species occur simultaneously at altitudes ranging from 0 to 800 m (Dvorak et al. 2008). According to Griffin et al. (1988), intermediate phenotypes between Eucalyptus species may result from an ancient clinal variation that connected these species or from evolutionary pressure.
Considering the distinct morphological descriptors of E. alba (white and smooth bark) and E. urophylla (brown and rough bark), and the fact that natural hybridization and introgression are more noticeable in the field than in natural areas (Dvorak et al. 2008), we cannot rule out the possibility that within the population defined as E. urophylla, there may be individuals resulting from hybridization and/or introgression.
The observation of \(\:K\)=2, with one group consisting only of individuals from Wetar, has been related in previous studies to morphological differences (Doran et al. 1995; Pryor et al. 1995) and the existence of distinct seasonality patterns. These seasonality patterns correspond to (i) one with higher annual rainfall and irregular distribution of rain throughout the year, with well-defined prolonged dry periods of 5 to 6 months, and (ii) low rainfall with uniform distribution of rain throughout the year (Dvorak et al. 2008). A division of E. urophylla into E. orophilla and E. wetarensis was previously proposed, but it has not yet been established based on molecular analyses (Pryor et al. 1995). The phylogenetic analysis (Fig. 5A) shows that the individuals from Wetar are genetically distant from the others, thus reopening the discussion about classifying them as E. urophylla var. wetarensis.
On Adonara Island, the isolation of the Kawela individuals from the other populations was observed (Fig. 3C). This greater genetic differentiation may be related to higher levels of relatedness within this population, favored by the small size of the sampled fragment. The Kawella population originates from an area spanning approximately 50 hectares and is predominantly composed of ancient forest remnants (Hodge and Dvorak 2015). As reported by Luz (1997), this fragment contains a small stand of E. urophylla (fewer than 500 trees), which may increase the population's vulnerability to inbreeding and genetic drift, reducing its resilience to environmental disturbances.
The populations exhibit genetic diversity suitable for conservation and exploration, including the development of hybrids, the establishment of new populations with recombined genetic material, and, in the future, clones. The results allow for the definition of specific strategies for the efficient conservation and management of genetic resources, aiming at the selection of productive genotypes for different macro and micro climatic regions. An example of this is the evaluation of populations occurring in areas of high volcanic activity, with the goal of selecting genotypes tolerant to water stress, considering their evolutionary adaptation to these extreme conditions. This is a promising alternative to address current climatic fluctuations, where water availability and temperature are highly limiting factors for productivity. In these populations, migration rates exceeding one migrant per generation have already been observed (Payn et al. 2008). According to Wright (1931), such values may be sufficient to prevent population differentiation due to genetic drift. Studies investigating the past of populations using modern approaches in population genetics, such as Coalescent Theory, are scarce in the forestry context and will be the next step in our investigation. Such studies have the potential to clarify the species' evolutionary history by examining past evolutionary events, such as mutations, gene flow, and selection, that may explain genetic differentiation (Nordborg 2007).
Base populations are direct sources of allelic diversity (Dvorak et al. 2008) and, therefore, must be preserved to ensure the security and longevity of the breeding program. Our aim is not only to present the genetic diversity of the 17 populations but also to highlight the importance of genetic conservation and promote a culture of gene pool preservation, especially among industrial companies, which are the primary beneficiaries. Mitigating measures that combine conservation and breeding, such as dynamic conservation, a perspective of revitalizing the base population of genetic improvement programs (Tambarussi et al. 2021), should be considered and implemented, as obtaining base populations without efficient use or management of resources is not true conservation (Dvorak et al. 2008).
The introduction of new populations, especially from unrepresented islands (Alor and Pantar), could further increase local genetic representativeness and variability. However, the limitation on new introductions requires even more efficient management of this genetic collection, particularly given that the genetic improvement base of E. urophylla in the country today is almost entirely comprised of genotypes originating from only two of the seven islands, Timor and Flores.