The expression levels of IL2RG and their relationship with the clinical and pathological characteristics.
First, we conducted a pan-cancer analysis of IL2RG and found that IL2RG expres-sion was dysregulated in the majority of cancers. Specifically, IL2RG was upregulated in BRCA, CHOL, HNSC, KIRC, PCPG, and STAD, and downregulated in COAD, KICH, LUAD, and LUSC (Fig. 1A). The varied expression profile of IL2RG across different tumors suggests its involvement in tumorigenesis and progression through distinct mechanisms.
Subsequently, we analyzed the expression of IL2RG in ccRCC concerning its clin-ical and pathological relevance. We observed that IL2RG expression levels were signif-icantly associated with T stage, N stage, M stage, AJCC stage, and WHO/ISUP grade (P < 0.001). Moreover, logistic regression analysis revealed a positive correlation be-tween IL2RG expression and ccRCC progression (Fig. 1B-D), though no association was found with age or gender (Figure S1). Kaplan–Meier survival analysis indicated that high IL2RG expression was correlated with poorer OS, DSS, and PFI (P < 0.05, Fig-ure 1E-I).
Using qRT-PCR, we assessed IL2RG mRNA expression in samples (n = 50) and cell lines, with results presented as 2-ΔΔCt. We then performed IHC to examine IL2RG pro-tein expression in ccRCC tissues. The results demonstrated that IL2RG mRNA expres-sion was significantly higher in ccRCC tissues compared to normal tissues (P < 0.05, Fig. 2A). Similarly, IL2RG mRNA levels in 786O, 769P, and ACHN cells were signif-icantly elevated compared to 293T cells (Fig. 2B). IHC results further revealed that IL2RG protein was predominantly localized in the cell membrane and cytoplasm of ccRCC cells (Fig. 2C), and its expression was significantly higher in ccRCC tissues compared to normal tissues (P < 0.0001, Fig. 2D).
These findings suggest that IL2RG may play a role in ccRCC tumor progression and could serve as a potential prognostic biomarker for ccRCC patients.
Critical IRLs Screening.
Through the ImmPort and InnateDB databases, we identified 3,178 im-mune-related genes in humans, and using Pearson correlation analysis, we filtered 67 genes that were highly correlated with IL2RG (r > 0.8, P < 0.001) (Table S2). Ultimately, 26 immune genes significantly associated with IL2RG were confirmed (Figure S2A). The results revealed that IL2RG-related immune genes were generally dysregulated in ccRCC (Figure S2B). We further generated a heatmap, visually demonstrating the up-regulation of these 26 genes in ccRCC tissues (Figure S2C), suggesting that these genes may play pivotal roles in the initiation and progression of ccRCC.
Subsequently, we continued with Pearson correlation analysis to explore the as-sociation between these genes and lncRNAs (r > 0.8, P < 0.001), identifying key lncRNAs co-expressed with IL2RG and associated with prognosis (Figure S3A). The analysis revealed 63 IRLs that were closely related to patient survival outcomes and showed statistical significance (Table S3). We then constructed a forest plot for the top 20 lncRNAs positively correlated with prognosis (Figure S3B). Through the creation of heatmaps and differential expression plots, we filtered the top 20 lncRNAs most strongly associated with survival and prognosis. The results demonstrated significant differences in the expression of these lncRNAs between groups (Figure S3C-D).
Consensus Clustering based on IRLs.
Based on the expression profiles of 63 key immune-related lncRNAs (IRLs), we conducted consensus clustering analysis on 530 ccRCC patients. The analysis showed a low cumulative distribution function (CDF) value at k = 2 (Figure S4A-B). We found significant associations between clusters and clinical parameters, including TNM stage, histological grade, and clinical staging (Figure S4C). Prognosis analysis revealed significant differences among patient clusters (P < 0.001, Figure S4D). Using the CIBERSORT algorithm, we assessed immune cell infiltration, noting differences in B cells, CD8 + T cells, resting CD4 + memory T cells, monocytes, and M2 macrophages (Figure S4E). The ESTIMATE algorithm indicated significant differences in immune and microenvironment scores (P < 0.001), though no difference was observed in stromal scores (Figure S4F). These findings suggest that clustering based on key IRLs correlates with clinical characteristics and prognosis, highlighting potential biomarkers for ccRCC diagnosis and evaluation.
Development of a prognostic model based on IRLs.
In this study, 530 ccRCC patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (266 cases) and a testing cohort (264 cases). We performed LASSO regression analysis on the 63 IRLs, constructing a prognostic model comprising 6-IRLs (Fig. 3A-C). The formula for calculating the risk score of the model is: Risk score = (LINC00944 × 0.066) + (AC016773.2 × 0.100) + (LINC02446 × 0.002) + (LINC02328 × 0.018) + (U62317.2 × 0.001) + (KIF1C-AS1 × 0.041). We then plotted the forest plots of univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses for these 6-IRLs (Figure S5). Using this formula, we calculated each patient’s risk score and categorized them into low-risk and high-risk groups based on the median risk score. Survival analysis of the total cohort, training set, and validation set revealed that the survival time of the high-risk group was significantly shorter than that of the low-risk group (Fig. 3D-F), with this difference being statis-tically significant (P < 0.05). Furthermore, ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the 6-IRL model exhibited high accuracy in predicting survival rates (Fig. 3G-I). Survival status curves and scatter plots indicated that as the risk score increased, patient sur-vival time significantly decreased (Fig. 3J-L). t-SNE analysis also revealed a marked distinction between the high-risk and low-risk groups (Fig. 3M-O).
Subsequently, we analyzed the expression of the risk score in ccRCC based on clinical and pathological data from the TCGA database (Figure S6A). We found that the risk score was significantly associated with T stage, M stage, AJCC stage, and WHO/ISUP grade, with higher risk scores correlating with more advanced T stage, M stage, AJCC stage, and WHO/ISUP grade (Figure S6B-E) (P < 0.05), while no correlation was found with age, gender, or N stage (Figure S7). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that the 6-IRLs model could serve as an independent prognostic factor, with the results supported by both the validation set and the total TCGA cohort (Figure S8). This suggests that the scoring model holds promise as a crucial indicator for clinical prognostic assessment in ccRCC patients.
The stratified prognostic value of the 6-IRL signature.
We further evaluated the prognostic predictive capability of the 6-IRLs signature across various clinical strata, including gender (female vs. male), age (≤ 65 years vs. >65 years), AJCC stage (I–II vs. III–IV), ISUP grade (I–II vs. III–IV), T stage (T1–2 vs. T3–4), M stage (M0 vs. M1), and N stage (N0 vs. N1). The results revealed a significant difference in survival prognosis between high-risk and low-risk patients in most clinical groups, with high-risk patients exhibiting notably poorer outcomes (Figure S9). However, in subgroups of patients aged > 65 years, with ISUP grade I–II, M1, and N1, the survival differences were not statistically significant (Figure S10).
Development and validation of the prognostic nomogram.
We integrated multiple clinical factors closely associated with patient prognosis, including gender, AJCC stage, ISUP grade, and the 6-IRL signature, to develop a prac-tical clinical prediction tool aimed at enhancing the accuracy of survival predictions for ccRCC patients. This predictive model, represented by a nomogram, estimates the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probabilities of ccRCC patients (Fig. 4A). We subsequently validated the model’s performance in predicting survival at these time points using calibration curves (Fig. 4B), which demonstrated outstanding accuracy. Additionally, we employed decision curve analysis (DCA) to further assess the clinical utility of the tool. The DCA results indicated that the nomogram provided greater net benefits and a wider range of threshold probabilities in predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival. Compared to the 6-IRL signature alone, the nomogram exhibited supe-rior clinical applicability (Fig. 4C-F).
immune Analysis via 6-IRLs Markers.
According to the results of Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), we observed significant enrichment differences in multiple KEGG pathways between the high-risk and low-risk groups (Fig. 5A). In the high-risk group, the T-cell receptor (TCR) sig-naling pathway and Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling pathway exhibited positive en-richment scores, conversely, the glutathione metabolism pathway, fatty acid metabolism, and TGF-β signaling pathway were significantly enriched in the low-risk group,furthermore, the P53 signaling pathway and autophagy regulation also showed differential enrichment across the risk spectrum, hinting at a complex regulatory network involving tumor suppression and autophagic processes that may influence the phenotypic transition between high-and low-risk groups.
Subsequently, we delved deeper into the enrichment levels and activities of im-mune cells, relevant pathways, and their functions in ccRCC. The results revealed sig-nificant differences in immune marker expression between the low-risk and high-risk groups (Fig. 5B). Further analysis of immune checkpoint expression between the two groups indicated substantial differences across several immune checkpoint mole-cules (Fig. 5C). Additionally, we evaluated the correlation between risk scores and immune cell infiltration. The analysis showed a positive correlation between risk scores and Memory B cells, Neutrophils, M1 macrophages, CD8 + T cells, Regulatory T cells, and Follicular helper T cells. In contrast, M2 macrophages, resting Mast cells, na-ive B cells, Monocytes, Eosinophils, activated Dendritic cells, and resting Dendritic cells were negatively correlated with risk scores (Fig. 5D-G, Figure S11).
Drug sensitivity analysis.
The sensitivity analysis of commonly used targeted drugs revealed that the high-risk group exhibited greater sensitivity to Sunitinib and Temsirolimus (Figure S12A, C), while the low-risk group demonstrated higher sensitivity to Sorafenib and Pazopanib (Figure S12B, E). Conversely, Axitinib showed no significant difference be-tween the two groups (p = 0.55) (Figure S12D). These results suggest a correlation be-tween risk group stratification and drug sensitivity. Furthermore, the 6-IRLs signature could serve as an independent predictor of drug efficacy, potentially holding signifi-cant clinical value.
Clinical sample validation.
The qRT-PCR results indicated that the relative expression levels of 6-lncRNAs were significantly elevated in ccRCC tumor tissues compared to adjacent normal tissues, with all differences being statistically significant (Fig. 6A-F) (P < 0.05). These ex-perimental findings corroborate our bioinformatics analysis, reaffirming the accuracy of our study through the confirmed expression levels of the 6-lncRNAs.