NIRS ability to identify An. gambiae s.l. species from different environmental conditions
A total of 4131 laboratory derived Anopheles of various ages and reared under different environmental conditions were used to assess NIRS accuracy. The binomial logistic classification model trained on mosquitoes reared in all conditions in the laboratory discriminated between An. gambiae and An. coluzzii with 83% of accuracy (An. gambiae = 84%; An. coluzzii = 82%; Fig. 3a). A small difference of accuracy was observed for the wild-caught mosquitoes (accuracy = 84%; Fig. 3b) when predictive model was trained on specimens of all periods. The preliminary analyses already revealed the different profiles of spectra between the two groups of mosquitoes (laboratory-mosquitoes versus field mosquitoes) (Fig. 4).
When a calibration model was generated from laboratory mosquitoes reared in one condition to predict those in other conditions, NIRS accuracies were more variable from 77–85% (Fig. 4a). In most situations models trained with mosquitoes from the same condition were more accurate, i.e. models calibrated with mosquitoes reared under August conditions were the most reliable in predicting mosquito species reared under August conditions. Nevertheless, needs to be taken when interpreting differences as the number of mosquitoes in each model varied substantially (Fig. 2). The lowest accuracy was obtained when models derived from specimens reared under June conditions were used to predict Anopheles species from other rearing conditions. However, these models were also trained on the smallest number of mosquitoes. In contrast, the high accuracy was found in August conditions when model derived from mosquitoes in these conditions were used to predict Anopheles species from another reared conditions. (Fig. 5a). The overall accuracies of different comparisons using a predictive model from one condition to identify mosquito species in all conditions resulted no difference for distinguishing An. gambiae s.l. species (P = 0.11). Altogether, the models derived from insectary conditions and the peak of the rainy season mosquitoes appear appropriate for species predictions under other conditions (Fig. 5a). These observations need to be validated with a large number of mosquitoes in each model.
The analysis was extended to investigate whether these finding could be generalized to wild Anopheles. A total of 4343 mosquitoes with 12.8%, 41.5%, and 45.7% of An. arabiensis, An. gambiae and An. coluzzii respectively were collected in the field and used to train; and test the model. Due to the low sample size of An. arabiensis, only spectra derived from An. gambiae and An. coluzzii were included in the data analysis. Globally, the model developed using mosquitoes of all periods classified An. gambiae and An. coluzzii with 84% of accuracy (An. gambiae, 86%; An. coluzzii, 82%, Fig. 3b). Again, accuracies varied considerably between 67 and 84% when the model trained with samples collected in one period was used to predict samples from another period (Fig. 5b). Indeed, the model derived from mosquitoes at the end of the rainy season generated low accuracy (67%) in predicting onset-season mosquito species, though these models were trained on the smallest number of mosquitoes. The highest accuracy (84%) was found with the model train on samples from the peak of the rainy season. As in laboratory Anopheles, the model trained from the peak of the rainy season specimens seems to be better for the predictions. Finally, models derived from laboratory-mosquitoes reared under fluctuating environmental conditions failed to predict field-derived mosquito species with an accuracy of 59% (An. gambiae, 59%; An. coluzzii, 58%).
NIRS accuracy to predict wild An. gambiae s.l. age under different environmental conditions
Around 2500 wild Anopheles were collected in the field, with 1000 females from Bama and 1500 from Soumousso. As expected, the three major species of Anopheles involved in malaria transmission (51.6% An. gambiae, 38.2% An. arabiensis and 10.2% An. coluzzii) were found in Soumousso while Bama mosquitoes were nearly all An. coluzzii. The first-generation female (F1) of these mosquitoes was used for NIRS analysis. Mosquito ability to transmit Plasmodium required a minimum longevity covering the parasite extrinsic incubation period (EIP) estimate at about 9 days [30]. We investigated the accuracy NIRS technique to predict mosquito age as young (< 9 days) or old (≥ 9 days) under different environmental conditions. Based on 9 days as threshold age for malaria transmission, NIRS accurately classify mosquitoes into young and old with slight difference between environmental conditions. Regardless of mosquito group and environmental conditions, the binomial predictive model indicated that NIRS was able to classify mosquitoes as young (< 9 days) and old (≥ 9 days), with 81% of accuracy for both ages’ classifications. The similar accuracies were found under each environmental condition with slight variations depending on the Anopheles group, range from 79–84% (Fig. 6). Additionally, NIRS classified younger Anopheles (< 9 days old) than their older counterparts whatever environmental conditions and mosquito group (An. coluzzii: insectary conditions (< 9, 84%; ≥ 9, 83%), August conditions (< 9, 82%; ≥ 9, 81%), December conditions (< 9, 83%; ≥ 9, 79%); An. gambiae s.l.: insectary conditions (< 9, 87%; ≥ 9, 80%), August conditions (< 9, 86%; ≥ 9, 79%), December conditions (< 9, 81%; ≥ 9, 77%). These accuracies were obtained by training model on samples of one condition and validating on a subsample of the same condition. However, NIRS was unable to distinguish between young and old mosquitos when we attempted to use the model derived from mosquitoes reared in one environmental condition to predict the age of mosquitoes reared in another condition (< 50% accuracy).