Clinical studies and population
The analysis used data from three prior clinical studies of brexpiprazole carried out in Japan, all of which were conducted in accordance with Good Clinical Practice guidelines and local regulatory requirements. The study protocols were approved by relevant institutional review boards, and all patients provided written informed consent prior to participation. The included trials were: (i) a randomised, placebo-controlled, single-dose, Phase 1 study of 46 healthy adult males who received brexpiprazole doses ranging from 0.2 to 6 mg (trial 331-07-002); (ii) a Phase 1 repeated-dose study of 21 adult patients with schizophrenia receiving multiple once-daily doses of 1, 4, and 6 mg brexpiprazole (trial 331-10-001); and (iii) a Phase 2/3 trial of 331 adult patients with schizophrenia who received multiple once-daily doses of 1, 2, and 4 mg brexpiprazole (trial 331-10-002; Japan Registry for Clinical Trials identifier: jRCT2080221591).
Dosing regimens and PK sampling schedules for the clinical studies included in the model are shown in Table S1. Blood samples for PK analysis (~ 5 mL per sample) were drawn by venous puncture, and the date and time were recorded in the case report form. Each blood tube was inverted and centrifuged, and the obtained plasma was frozen at approximately − 20°C (or − 80°C in trial 331-07-002). Frozen samples were sent to a bioanalytical laboratory where drug concentrations were measured using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry.
In all trials, subjects were included for population PK analyses if they provided at least one measurable post-dose brexpiprazole PK measurement; and all venous plasma concentrations of brexpiprazole with a valid date and time were included in the final PK dataset. Concentration measurements below the lower limit of quantification (LLOQ; 0.5 ng/mL) were excluded from the analyses.
Population PK model development and analysis
In order to identify and characterise the key model features needed to accurately describe the typical (i.e. population average) brexpiprazole exposure, PK data were analysed through nonlinear mixed effects modelling (NLME). The first-order conditional estimation method with interaction was used for all stages of the model development process. The precision of model parameter estimates, the magnitude of residual variability, and the appearance of trends in goodness-of-fit plots were all considered when assessing the suitability of structural NLME models. Unless otherwise noted, additional structural parameters were incorporated into the model only if the resulting improvement in the objective function was significant at the α = 0.01 level and did not result in any instability in model convergence.
In summary, a stepwise model development approach was applied, involving exploratory data analysis and data visualisation, development of a base PK model, stepwise covariate method (SCM) search, and evaluation of the final PK model.
Base structural model
Initial model development was conducted using Phase 1 data (trials 331-07-002 and 331-10-001) following a single dose. One-, two- and three-compartment structural models were evaluated. To further improve the description of the absorption phase, a series of transit compartments were evaluated to see whether they could improve the prediction. As a next step in the model building process, the best model describing the single-dose data was rerun on the multiple-dose Phase 1 data combined with the single-dose Phase 1 data. The best model identified for the Phase 1 data was then rerun on the combined data from the Phase 1 and Phase 2/3 studies.
The base model was parameterised in terms of apparent clearance (CL/F), apparent central volume of distribution (Vc/F), apparent inter-compartmental clearance (Q/F), apparent peripheral volume of distribution (Vp/F), and absorption rate constant (KA). Transit compartments were added in a stepwise manner until no further improvement in the model diagnostics was observed.
Stochastic model
Between subject variability (BSV) was incorporated into the NLME model through inclusion of random effects on model parameters in an exponential form. Then, the random effects model was optimised by evaluating the effect of including BSV on several structural parameters (i.e. CL/F, Vc/F, and KA). The residual error structure for plasma concentration data was assumed to follow a proportional error model.
Covariate selection
Once the structural/stochastic model was defined, potential covariate effects were tested to identify observable patient characteristics with a meaningful impact on exposure. The set of covariates evaluated for inclusion were selected based upon clinical relevance. Potential covariates were tested in an SCM search process, which included both forward inclusion and backward deletion steps, with a required significance level of p < 0.01 and p < 0.001, respectively. The covariates selected for use in the model are shown in Table 1.
Table 1
Covariates selected for evaluation in population PK analysis
Covariate | PK parameter |
• Body weight • Age • Sex • Dose • Population (healthy subjects or patients with schizophrenia) • Kidney parameter (eGFRa) • Liver parameter (ALT) • CYP2D6 inferred metabolic status (extensive, intermediate, or poor metabolisers) • CYP3A4/CYP2D6 inhibitor use (none, 1 strong/moderate CYP3A4/CYP2D6 comedication, or > 1 strong/moderate CYP3A4/CYP2D6 comedication) • Moderate CYP3A4/CYP2D6 inhibitor use (none, 1 moderate CYP3A4/CYP2D6 comedication, or > 1 moderate CYP3A4/CYP2D6 comedication) • Strong CYP3A4/CYP2D6 inhibitor use (none, 1 strong CYP3A4/CYP2D6 comedication, or > 1 strong CYP3A4/CYP2D6 comedication) | CL/F |
• Body weight • Sex • Age | Vc/F |
aThe following equation was used to estimate glomerular filtration rate: |
eGFR = 194 × serum creatinine− 1.094 × age− 0.287 (× 0.739 if female). |
ALT, alanine aminotransferase; CL/F, apparent clearance; CYP, cytochrome P450; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; PK, pharmacokinetic; Vc/F, apparent central volume of distribution. |
The magnitudes of the categorical covariates retained in the final model were reported as the percentage change in the relevant parameter relative to a typical subject. The impact of continuous covariates on the relevant parameter in the measured range of the covariate was explored.
Sensitivity analyses
Sensitivity analyses were performed to further confirm the validity of the final covariate model: (i) the final covariate model was rerun with the exclusion of outliers; (ii) an alternative model with allometrically scaled body weight on the population PK parameters CL/F, Q (exponent set to 0.75), Vc/F, and Vp/F (exponent set to 1.0) was run [18]; (iii) SCM searches with other measures of body size (lean body weight and body mass index [BMI]) were performed; and (iv) the final covariate model with three separate categories defined for CYP2D6 metabolisers (extensive, intermediate, and unknown) was rerun.
Model evaluation
The following four approaches were applied to perform an evaluation of the final PK model: (i) standard goodness-of-fit plots; (ii) bootstrap resampling including a total of 1000 bootstrapped replications of the original data; (iii) predictioncorrected visual predictive checks; and (iv) assessment of ETA (η) and EPSILON (ε) shrinkage estimates for all variability terms.
Simulations using the final PK model
The final model was used to simulate steady state PK profiles for repeated oral administrations of 1 and 2 mg/day of brexpiprazole. One thousand virtual patients were generated by resampling from the PK modelling dataset. Additionally, exposure-response relationship data from a PET study [11] were used to simulate dopamine receptor occupancy using the following formula:
Receptor occupancy = Emax × C / (EC50 + C)
where Emax = estimated maximum receptor occupancy in the caudate nucleus, 95.4%; EC50 = estimated concentration of brexpiprazole to half maximum receptor occupancy in the caudate nucleus, 7.75 ng/mL; and C = simulated plasma concentration of brexpiprazole.
Statistical software and analysis
NONMEM software (version 7.2.0, ICON plc) was used for NLME modelling. Statistical and graphical interpretations of the NONMEM output were performed by PSN 4.2.0 R, version 3.1 and higher, and/or S-PLUS 8.2.