Advantage of PET/CT vs. MRI in diagnosing cervical lymph nodes
In cohort A, 58.0% of patients (195/336) were diagnosed with stage III, and patients staged N1 accounted for 77.1% (259/336) (Supplementary Table 1). Of the 460 biopsied cervical lymph nodes from 336 patients, 269 (58.5%) and 191 (41.5%) lymph nodes were pathologically positive and negative, respectively. Among them, 96.7% (260/269) of positive and 75.9% (145/191) of negative lymph nodes were correctly detected by PET/CT, while only 88.5% (238/269) of positive and 70.7% (135/191) of negative lymph nodes were correctly diagnosed by MRI. PET/CT was significantly more sensitive than MRI for detecting cervical lymph node metastasis (p < 0.001). As for specificity, no significant difference was observed between two imaging methods (75.9% vs. 70.7%, p = 0.174). The negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and accuracy of PET/CT and MRI were 94.2% vs. 81.3%, 85.0% vs. 81.0%, and 88.0% vs.81.1%, respectively (Table 1). And the area under the curve (AUC) of PET/CT was higher than that of MRI (0.863 vs. 0.796, p < 0.05). Notably, 14.4% (66/460) of lymph nodes had discrepancies between two imaging tests. Among them, PET/CT showed true positive in 22 lymph nodes which was diagnosed as negative lymph nodes by mistake in MRI, and true negative in 27 lymph nodes misdiagnosed as positive lymph nodes by MRI. Nonetheless, 17 lymph nodes were wrongly diagnosed as positive lymph nodes by PET/CT according to histopathology.
Table 1
Performance of PET/CT versus MRI in diagnosing 460 biopsied cervical lymph nodes of 336 patients
Imaging methods | TP | TN | FP | FN | Sensitivity (%) | p | Specificity (%) | p | PPV (%) | p | NPV (%) | p | Accuracy (%) | p |
95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | |
PET/CT | 260 | 145 | 46 | 9 | 96.7(93.5–98.4) | | 75.9 (69.1–81.7) | | 85.0(80.4–88.7) | | 94.2(88.9–97.1) | | 88.0(84.7–90.9) | |
MRI | 238 | 135 | 56 | 31 | 88.5(83.9–91.9) | | 70.7(63.6–76.9) | | 81.0 (75.9–85.2) | | 81.3 (74.4–86.8) | | 81.1(77.2–84.6) | |
PET/CT vs. MRI | | | | | | ༜0.001 | | 0.174 | | 0.191 | | 0.001 | | ༜0.001 |
Abbreviations: FP, false positive; FN, false negative; NPV, negative predictive value; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; PET/CT, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography; PPV, positive predictive value; TP, true positive; TN, true negative. |
To evaluate whether the staging can be manipulated by PET/CT or MRI and subsequently affects the prognosis, the cohort B included 1093 patients who received pretreatment PET/CT and MRI. The median age was 45 (range,12–79) years, male accounted for 71.9%, and 819 (74.9%) patients had EBV-DNA lower than 4000 copies/ml (Table 2). With a median follow up time of 50 (range, 1-118) months, 48 (4.4%) patients died, 142 (13.9%) patients suffered from treatment failure, and 62 (5.7%) patients had distant metastasis. The 5-year OS, FFS, DMFS, and LRRFS were 96.0%, 85.6%, 93.6%, and 92.9%, respectively.
Table 2
Baseline characteristics of patients with T3N1M0 in primary Cohort B, Cohort C, and PSM cohort
| Primary cohort | | PSM cohort |
| Cohort B: PET/CT + MRI (N = 1093) | Cohort C: MRI(N = 1377) | P | | PET/CT + MRI (N = 954) | MRI(N = 954) | P |
| N (%) | N (%) | | | N (%) | N (%) | |
Age | | | 0.021 | | | | 0.911 |
Median(range) | 45(12–79) | 47(13–81) | | | 46(12–79) | 46(15–78) | |
< 55 | 867(79.3) | 1037(75.3) | | | 747(78.3) | 750(78.6) | |
≥ 55 | 226 (20.7) | 340 (24.7) | | | 207 (21.7) | 204 (21.4) | |
Sex | | | 0.362 | | | | 0.754 |
Male | 786 (71.9) | 966 (70.2) | | | 709 (74.3) | 702 (73.6) | |
Female | 307(28.1) | 411(29.8) | | | 245(25.7) | 252(26.4) | |
ALB(g/L) | | | 0.014 | | | | 0.445 |
< 40 | 51(4.7) | 98(7.1) | | | 48(5.0) | 40(4.2) | |
≥ 40 | 1042 (95.3) | 1279 (92.9) | | | 906 (95.0) | 914 (95.8) | |
HB (g/L) | | | 0.163 | | | | 0.849 |
< 120 | 61(5.6) | 97(7.0) | | | 57(6.0) | 60(6.3) | |
≥ 120 | 1032 (94.4) | 1280 (93.0) | | | 897 (94.0) | 894 (93.7) | |
LDH(U/L) | | | 0.949 | | | | 0.904 |
< 250 | 1050(96.1) | 1321(95.9) | | | 919(96.3) | 917(96.1) | |
≥ 250 | 43 (3.9) | 56 (4.1) | | | 35 (3.7) | 37 (3.9) | |
EBV-DNA (copy/mL) | | | 0.721 | | | | 1 |
< 4000 | 819(74.9) | 1022(74.2) | | | 712(74.6) | 711(74.5) | |
≥ 4000 | 274 (25.1) | 355 (25.8) | | | 242 (25.4) | 243 (25.5) | |
Lymph Node | | | < 0.001 | | | | 0.882 |
Retropharyngeal lymph node | 299(27.4) | 656(47.6) | | | 295(30.9) | 299(31.3) | |
Cervical lymph node | 794 (72.6) | 721 (52.4) | | | 659 (69.1) | 655 (68.7) | |
Treatment | | | 0.162 | | | | 0.578 |
CCRT | 489 (44.7) | 584 (42.4) | | | 407 (42.7) | 422 (44.2) | |
IC + CCRT | 349 (31.9) | 418 (30.4) | | | 311 (32.6) | 297 (31.1) | |
RT | 116 (10.6) | 163 (11.8) | | | 106 (11.1) | 93 (9.7) | |
IC + RT | 139 (12.7) | 212 (15.4) | | | 130 (13.6) | 142 (14.9) | |
Smoking | | | 0.266 | | | | 0.61 |
Yes | 296 (27.1) | 402 (29.2) | | | 261 (27.4) | 272 (28.5) | |
No | 797(72.9) | 975(70.8) | | | 693(72.6) | 682(71.5) | |
Drinking | | | 0.387 | | | | 0.749 |
Yes | 175 (16.0) | 202 (14.7) | | | 141 (14.8) | 147 (15.4) | |
No | 918(84.0) | 1175(85.3) | | | 813(85.2) | 807(84.6) | |
History | | | 1 | | | | 0.323 |
Yes | 107 (9.8) | 135 (9.8) | | | 74 (7.8) | 87 (9.1) | |
No | 986(90.2) | 1242(90.2) | | | 880(92.2) | 867(90.9) | |
Abbreviations: CCRT, concurrent radiochemotherapy; CI, confidence interval; EBV, EpsteinBarr virus; HB, hemoglobin; IC, induction chemotherapy; LDH, serum lactate dehydrogenase; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; PSM: propensity scoring matching; PET/CT, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography; RT: radiotherapy |
According to PET/CT alone, 633 of 1093 patients in the cohort B were staged with T3N1M0. All the patients were consistently staged with T3 by MRI, whereas 3.2% (20/633), 83.1% (526/633), 13.4% (85/633), and 5.2% (33/633) of patients were diagnosed with N0, N1, N2, and N3 if determined by MRI alone. But remarkably, no significant differences in OS, FFS, LRRFS or DMFS were observed among these N0, N1, N2, and N3 patients staged by MRI (p = 0.68, p = 0.68, p = 0.61, and p = 0.96, respectively; Supplementary Fig. 2).
Based on the MRI criteria alone, 599 of 1093 patients in the cohort B were diagnosed with T3N1M0. All these patients were also staged with N1 by PET/CT. Nonetheless, 12.2% (73/599) and 87.8% (526/599) of patients were classified as T2 and T3 retrospectively by PET/CT alone. Survival rates were not significant different between T2 and T3 patients staged by PET/CT (p = 0.72 for OS, p = 0.85 for FFS, p = 0.93 for LRRFS, and p = 0.65 for DMFS; Supplementary Fig. 3).
Prolonged survival rates of patients staged by PET/CT vs. MRI
To find if the advantage of PET/CT in diagnosis can contribute to the survival differences, the cohort C in which patients underwent MRI alone was compared with cohort B. As shown in Table 2, the baseline characteristics between PET/CT plus MRI and MRI alone were compared. However, the results showed there was an imbalance in age, lymph node location, and albumin between two groups (p = 0.021, p = 0.014, and p < 0.001, respectively). After PSM at the ratio of 1:1, no imbalance variable was observed between two groups. Of 1908 patients who were included in the PSM cohort, 485 (25.4%) patients had EBV-DNA higher than 4000 copies/ml. With a median follow-up period of 52 (1-151) months, 132(6.9%) patients died, 165 (6.5%) patients developed distant metastasis, and 211(11.1%) patients suffered from locoregional relapse. The 5-year OS, FFS, DMFS, and LRRFS were 93.0%, 78.6%, 90.9% and 87.2%, respectively.
In survival analysis, patients underwent both PET/CT and MRI had better OS than those underwent MRI alone (5-year OS, 95.7% vs. 90.4%, p < 0.001). In terms of FFS, DMFS, and LRRFS, patients received both PET/CT and MRI also had higher survival rates compared with those received MRI alone (5-year FFS, 85.7% vs. 71.7%, p < 0.001; 5-year DMFS, 93.9% vs. 87.9%, p < 0.001; and 5-year LRRFS, 93% vs. 81.4%, p < 0.001; Fig. 2). Univariate analysis was presented in Supplementary Table 2. As shown in Supplementary Table 3, multivariate analysis indicated that the application of PET/CT was an independent favorable prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34–0.71, p < 0.001), FFS (HR = 0.5, 95% CI 0.40–0.61, p < 0.001), DMFS (HR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.32–0.61, p < 0.001), and LRRFS (HR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.28–0.51, p < 0.001), respectively.
Subgroup analysis was conducted in patients with EBV-DNA lower than 4000 copies/ml in the PSM cohort. In this subgroup, 1423 patients were eligible, of which 712 patients received both PET/CT and MRI. As shown in Supplementary Fig. 4, patients underwent both PET/CT and MRI had survival benefit in OS (5-year OS, 96.5% vs. 91.4%, p = 0.0012), FFS (5-year FFS, 86.1% vs. 75.4%, p < 0.001), DMFS (5-year DMFS, 93.7% vs. 90.9%, p < 0.001), and LRRFS (5-year LRRFS, 92.9% vs. 84.2%, p = 0.004) compared with those underwent MRI alone. Univariate analysis was deposited in Supplementary Table 4. In multivariable analysis (see Supplementary Table 5), addition of PET/CT was also an independent factor for OS (HR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.31–0.75, p = 0.0014), FFS (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.42–0.7, p < 0.001), DMFS (HR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.38–0.83, p = 0.0044), and LRRFS (HR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.31–0.64, p < 0.001), respectively.
Guiding individualized induction chemotherapy
In the Cohort B, 838 patients who received concurrent chemoradiotherapy with or without induction chemotherapy were selected to the Cohort D. However, there were significant differences in baseline characteristics between two treatment models (see Table 3). After PSM at 1:1 ratio, 698 patients were included in this well-balanced cohort. In the PSM cohort D, the median age were 46 years old (range, 13–73); 132(18.9%) patients had lymph node necrosis, and patients with grade 0, 1, 2, 3 radiologic extranodal extension accounted for 48.1% (336/698), 18.8% (131/698), 20.9% (146/698), 12.2% (85/698), respectively. With a median follow-up period of 50 (1-118) months, 117, 50, 45, 35 patients had treatment failure, locoregional relapse, distant metastasis, and died. The 5-year FFS, LRRFS, DMFS, and OS were 82.0%, 92.6%, 92.8% and 95.0%, respectively. Interestingly, univariate analysis (Supplementary Table 6) and multivariable analysis indicated that SUV-N higher than 9.35, in together with nodal necrosis and extranodal extension infiltrating adjacent structures, carried prognostic significance for FFS (p < 0.001, p = 0.002, and p = 0.002, respectively, Supplementary Table 7). Radiologic score was thus developed based on the number of the three factors. Patients with higher radiologic score had the lower FFS (p < 0.001, Supplementary Fig. 5). Thus, patients with one or more risk factors were classified into high-risk group (radiologic score > 0, n = 454), while patients with no risk factor were stratified into low-risk group (radiologic score = 0, n = 244). The survival curves showed patients in high-risk group had lower FFS, DMFS, LRRFS, and OS than those in lower-risk group (all p < 0.05, Supplementary Fig. 6). Radiologic score model had higher C-index than the model with gender and EBV-DNA (0.72 [95% CI:0.65–0.78] vs. 0.56 [95% CI: 0.49–0.63], p < 0.001).
Table 3
Baseline characteristics of patients in primary Cohort D and PSM cohort D
| Primary Cohort D | | PSM Cohort D |
| CCRT (N = 489) | IC + CCRT(N = 349) | p | | CCRT(n = 349) | IC + CCRT (n = 349) | p |
| n (%) | n (%) | | | n (%) | n (%) | |
Sex | | | 0.617 | | | | 0.511 |
Female | 152(31.1) | 102(29.2) | | | 111(31.8) | 102(29.2) | |
Male | 337 (68.9) | 247 (70.8) | | | 238 (68.2) | 247 (70.8) | |
Age | | | 0.297 | | | | 0.306 |
< 55 | 394(80.6) | 270(77.4) | | | 282(80.8) | 270(77.4) | |
≥ 55 | 95 (19.4) | 79 (22.6) | | | 67 (19.2) | 79 (22.6) | |
Albumin (g/L) | | | 0.336 | | | | 0.704 |
< 40 | 15(3.1) | 16(4.9) | | | 13(3.7) | 16(4.9) | |
≥ 40 | 474 (96.9) | 333 (95.4) | | | 336 (96.3) | 333 (95.4) | |
Hemoglobin (g/L) | | | 0.786 | | | | 0.658 |
< 120 | 14(2.9) | 12(3.4) | | | 9(2.6) | 12(3.4) | |
≥ 120 | 475 (97.1) | 337 (96.6) | | | 340 (97.4) | 337 (96.6) | |
LDH(U/L) | | | 0.878 | | | | 0.066 |
< 250 | 462(94.5) | 328(94.0) | | | 339(97.1) | 328(94) | |
≥ 250 | 27 (5.5) | 21 (6.0) | | | 10 (2.9) | 21 (6.0) | |
EBV-DNA (copy/mL) | | 0.001 | | | | 0.073 |
< 2000 | 341(69.7) | 203(58.2) | | | 227(65.0) | 203(58.2) | |
≥ 2000 | 148 (30.3) | 146 (41.8) | | | 122 (35.0) | 146 (41.8) | |
Lymph Node | | | 0.015 | | | | 0.54 |
CLN | 379(77.5) | 295(84.5) | | | 288(82.5) | 295(84.5) | |
RLN | 110 (22.5) | 54 (15.5) | | | 61 (17.5) | 54 (15.5) | |
Smoking | | | 0.431 | | | | 0.729 |
Yes | 135 (27.6) | 87 (24.9) | | | 92 (26.4) | 87 (24.9) | |
No | 354(72.4) | 262(75.1) | | | 257(73.6) | 262(75.1) | |
Drinking | | | 1 | | | | 1 |
Yes | 81 (16.6) | 58 (16.6) | | | 59 (16.9) | 58 (16.6) | |
No | 408(83.4) | 291(83.4) | | | 290(83.1) | 291(83.4) | |
History | | | 0.117 | | | | 0.076 |
Yes | 55 (11.2) | 27 (7.7) | | | 42 (12.0) | 27 (7.7) | |
No | 434(88.8) | 322(92.3) | | | 307(88.0) | 322(92.3) | |
Nodal Necrosis | | | 0.034 | | | | 0.384 |
Yes | 71 (14.5) | 71 (20.3) | | | 61 (17.5) | 71 (20.3) | |
No | 418(85.5) | 278(79.7) | | | 217(82.5) | 278(79.7) | |
Minimal axial diameter(cm) | | 0.001 | | | | 0.245 |
< 0.95 | 186(38.0) | 95(27.2) | | | 110(31.5) | 95(27.2) | |
≥ 0.95 | 303 (62.0) | 254 (72.8) | | | 239 (68.5) | 254 (72.8) | |
Maximal axial diameter(cm) | | < 0.001 | | | | 0.148 |
< 1.35 | 208(42.5) | 106(30.4) | | | 125(35.8) | 106(30.4) | |
≥ 1.35 | 281 (57.5) | 243 (69.6) | | | 224 (64.2) | 243 (69.6) | |
SUVmax-T | | | 0.318 | | | | 0.929 |
< 9.25 | 131(26.8) | 82(23.5) | | | 80(22.9) | 82(23.5) | |
≥ 9.25 | 358 (73.2) | 267 (76.5) | | | 269 (77.1) | 267 (76.5) | |
SUVmax-N | | | < 0.001 | | | | 0.59 |
< 9.35 | 286(58.5) | 138(39.5) | | | 146(41.8) | 138(39.5) | |
≥ 9.35 | 203 (41.5) | 211 (60.5) | | | 203 (58.2) | 211 (60.5) | |
rENE | | | 0.02 | | | | 0.24 |
Grade 0 | 261 (53.4) | 164 (47.0) | | | 172 (49.3) | 164 (47.0) | |
Grade 1 | 96 (19.6) | 61 (17.5) | | | 70 (20.1) | 61 (17.5) | |
Grade 2 | 91 (18.6) | 73 (20.9) | | | 73 (20.9) | 73 (20.9) | |
Grade 3 | 41 (8.4) | 51 (14.6) | | | 34 (9.7) | 51 (14.6) | |
Abbreviations: CCRT, concurrent radiochemotherapy; CLN: Cervical lymph node; EBV, EpsteinBarr virus; IC, induction chemotherapy; LDH, serum lactate dehydrogenase; PSM: propensity scoring matching; rENE, radiologic extranodal extension; RLN: Retropharyngeal lymph node SUVmax-N, the maximal standardized uptake value of lymph node; SUVmax-T, the maximal standardized uptake value of primary tumor |
For all the patients, induction chemotherapy showed no survival benefit (p = 0.78, Fig. 3). But in the high-risk group stratified by radiologic score, patients receiving induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy had higher 5-year FFS than those receiving concurrent chemoradiotherapy alone (82.2% vs. 71.5%; p = 0.00642, Fig. 3). After adjusting for covariates, multivariate analysis also confirmed that the addition of induction chemotherapy was an independent factor for FFS (HR: 0.53, 95%CI: 0.35–0.8, p = 0.0026; Supplementary Table 8 and Supplementary Table 9). By contrast, no survival difference was observed between the two treatment modes in the low-risk group (p = 0.074, Fig. 3). The same conclusion was also reached for DMFS and RRFS. And the detailed results of DMFS, LRRFS and OS were deposited in supplementary Tables and Figures.