Prevalence of NDV seropositivity
Table 1 shows the overall prevalence of NDV antibodies and prevalence stratified by season, age and sex. The overall prevalence of NDV in the backyard chickens of Tanzania is 26.8%. There were significant differences between titers in rainy versus dry season (15.9% and 34.9%, respectively; p-value < 0.0001) and between adult and non-adult birds (30.3% and 12.4%, respectively; p-value < 0.0001). However, there were no significant differences between the regions and sex of the birds (28.7% and 24.6%; 26.7% and 26.9%, respectively). Within each region there was a significant difference in the titers between seasons, and in Njombe the titers between the adult and non-adult birds were significant as well.
Violin plots representing the distribution of HI titers show a much larger count of negative samples than positive samples across all strata (Figure 2). Comparing strata with no significant differences between the samples tends to show similar distribution patterns, for example the distribution of antibody titers between male and female chickens is almost equal (Figure 2D and 2G). Comparing those strata with significant differences, the distribution patterns have many differences. For example in Figure 2C (p-value < 0.0001), there is a much larger distribution of negative samples in the non-adult and the distribution is skewed more toward high positives in the adults. This is true for the samples stratified by season as well (p-value < 0.0001), with a much larger distribution of positive titers in dry than during the rainy season, although the overall titers are higher in rainy season.
Table 1: Prevalence of seropositivity and protective antibodies stratified by regions, season, age and sex
|
|
Positive (Protective)
|
Negative
|
Total
|
Sero-prevalence (Protective)
|
95% CI
|
P-Value
|
All Data
|
Overall Prevalence
|
215 (104)
|
588
|
803
|
26.8 (13.0)
|
|
|
|
Region
|
Bahi
|
122 (31)
|
303
|
425
|
28.7 (7.3)
|
(24.4, 33.3)
|
0.19
|
|
Njombe
|
93 (73)
|
285
|
378
|
24.6 (19.3)
|
(20.3, 29.3)
|
|
Season
|
Rainy
|
55 (32)
|
290
|
345
|
15.9 (9.3)
|
(12.2, 20.2)
|
<0.0001
|
|
Dry
|
160 (72)
|
298
|
458
|
34.9 (15.7)
|
(30.6, 39.5)
|
|
Age
|
Adult
|
191 (100)
|
439
|
630
|
30.3 (15.9)
|
(26.7, 34.1)
|
<0.0001
|
|
Non-Adult
|
24 (4)
|
149
|
170
|
12.4 (2.4)
|
(7.8, 18.3)
|
|
Sex
|
Female
|
156 (78)
|
429
|
585
|
26.7 (13.3)
|
(23.1, 30.4)
|
0.96
|
|
Male
|
58 (25)
|
158
|
216
|
26.9 (11.6)
|
(21.1, 33.3)
|
|
By Region
|
Bahi
|
Rainy
|
30 (11)
|
165
|
195
|
15.4 (5.6)
|
(10.6, 21.2)
|
<0.0001
|
|
Dry
|
92 (20)
|
138
|
230
|
40.0 (8.7)
|
(33.6, 46.6)
|
|
Adult
|
101 (29)
|
233
|
334
|
30.2 (8.7)
|
(25.4, 35.5)
|
0.23
|
Non-Adult
|
21 (2)
|
70
|
91
|
23.1 (2.2)
|
(14.9, 33.1)
|
Female
|
80 (21)
|
215
|
295
|
27.1 (7.1)
|
(22.1, 32.6)
|
0.36
|
Male
|
41 (9)
|
87
|
128
|
32.0 (7.0)
|
(24.1, 40.9)
|
Njombe
|
Rainy
|
25 (21)
|
125
|
150
|
16.7 (14.0)
|
(11.1, 23.6)
|
0.005
|
|
Dry
|
68 (52)
|
160
|
228
|
29.8 (22.8)
|
(24.0, 36.2)
|
|
Adult
|
90 (71)
|
206
|
296
|
30.4 (24.0)
|
(25.2, 36.0)
|
<0.0001
|
Non-Adult
|
3 (2)
|
79
|
82
|
3.7 (2.4)
|
(0.8, 10.3)
|
Female
|
76 (57)
|
214
|
290
|
26.2 (19.7)
|
(21.2, 31.7)
|
0.24
|
Male
|
17 (16)
|
71
|
88
|
19.3 (18.2)
|
(11.7, 29.1)
|
The patterns of higher positive titers become more apparent in Figure 3 when examining only the “protective” antibody titers. The overall prevalence of “protective” levels of antibody is 13 %. All strata seem to show the higher the titer the fewer amounts of chickens, demonstrating although the titer is considered “protective”, the titer is still not high. Comparing the amount of “protective” antibody titers present between seasons and age exhibited a significance difference; however there was no significant difference between region and sex. When stratifying the data by region first, the sample sizes become small, and although there are significant differences between adult and non-adult chickens in both Bahi and Njombe (p-values 0.04 and 0.007, respectively), the sample size of non-adult birds in each group is equal to 2, so larger samples sizes of non-adult birds is needed to confirm these results.
Risk Ratios, “protective antibody” characteristics
Factors contributing to the likelihood of having a “protective” antibody titer among local chickens determined through risk ratios with a calculated 95% confidence interval (Figure 4). Examining regionally, chickens are more likely to have a “protective” level of antibody titers in the Njombe (RR 1.15, 95%CI 1.09-1.22) district versus Bahi district (RR 0.87, 95%CI 0.82-0.92) (Figure 4, green dots). There is a slightly higher chance of having protection in the dry season (RR 1.08, 95%CI 1.02-1.13) versus the rainy season (RR 0.93, 95%CI 0.88-0.98) as well (Figure 4, blue dots). There is also a significant likelihood of protection in adults (RR 1.16, 95%CI 1.11-1.21)compared to non-adult chickens (RR 0.83, 95%CI 0.83-0.89) (Figure 4, red dots). However, there is no greater chance between males and females in having “protective” HI titers (Figure 4, purple dots). The respective risk ratio were 0.98, 95%CI 0.93-1.04 and 1.02, 95% CI 0.96-1.08).