Site description
Warra Supersite, (Lat: 43°5’42’’ S; Long: 146°39’16” E) is located on a floodplain of the Huon River within the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site (https://warra.com/) 60 km southwest of Hobart, Tasmania. The forest at the Supersite is an Eucalyptus obliqua tall forest with a canopy height of 50-55m, overtopping a 15-40m tall secondary layer of rainforest and wet sclerophyll tree species. Ferns dominate the ground layer. The forest is very productive with an aboveground biomass of 790 tonnes/ha 15 and a leaf area index of 5.7 m2/m2 25.
The Supersite is within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA). That part of the TWWHA experiences infrequent, but sometimes intense, wildfire. Except for a small proportion of mature (>250 years-old) E. obliqua trees, the current forest resulted from seedling regeneration following the last major wildfire in that part of the landscape in 1898. No timber harvesting has ever been done in the forest at the Supersite.
The climate at Warra is classified as temperate, with no dry season and a mild summer 26. Mean annual rainfall measured at the nearby Warra Climate Station (Bureau of Meteorology Station 097024) is 1736 mm and the mean daily temperature is 14°C and 5.6°C in January and July, respectively. The soil at the site is a Kurosolic Redoxic Hydrosol 15.
Analysis of historical heatwaves in southern Tasmania
Daily maximum temperature records from the Bureau of Meteorology station at Cape Bruny Lighthouse (station number 94010) were extracted from the Bureau of Meteorology’s online climate data portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data). Cape Bruny Lighthouse is one of the 112 stations in the ACORN-SAT network of Australia’s reference sites for monitoring climate change 27. The station provides a record of daily maximum temperature measurements commencing in 1923 and spanning almost a century. It is the southern-most station in the ACORN-SAT network; is 59 km south-east of the Warra Flux Site; and bounds the south-eastern extent of E. obliqua tall forest in Tasmania.
Missing temperature measurements represented less than 0.6% of the 35795 records collected at Cape Bruny Lighthouse between January 1st 1923 and December 31st 2020. The missing measurements were gap-filled using predicted values calculated from linear regression models constructed from measurements made at nearby Bureau of Meteorology stations (listed in order of proximity to Cape Bruny Lighthouse and priority for gap-filling) – Cape Bruny Automatic Weather Station (1997-present), Hastings Chalet (1947-1987) and Hobart-Ellerslie Road (1892-present).
Average, standard deviation and 90th percentiles of daily maximum temperature were calculated for each calendar day of the year. Further analysis of heatwaves was restricted to the period between the beginning of August and the end of February. This period bounds the growing season of the forest at the Warra Supersite when there is normally a net carbon gain by the forest (Wardlaw unpublished data). Heatwaves were identified as three or more consecutive days with maximum temperatures that met or exceeded the 90th percentile value sensu Perkins and Alexander 8. For each heatwave event that was identified, the following three statistics were calculated: (i) average daily maximum temperature during the heatwave; (ii) summed departures (as standard deviations) from average daily maximum temperature during the heatwave; (iii) summed departures (as standard deviations) from average daily maximum temperature of the 21 day period centred on the middle day of the heatwave. The November 2017 heatwave as described by these three statistics was ranked against all the other heatwave events identified between 1923-2020 at Cape Bruny Lighthouse. In addition, the z-score was calculated to measure the magnitude of the departure of the average daily maximum temperatures during the November 2017 heatwave from the long-term average of this 21-day period. These statistics were also calculated for the month immediately after the November 2017 heatwave (1-31 December) and the same period in 2015-16 to examine to what extend temperature conditions returned towards average conditions.
Weather conditions at Warra Supersite during the 2017 warm spell
Four attributes of weather were used to describe the November 2017 warm spell – air temperature, vapor pressure deficit (calculated from temperature and relative humidity), incoming shortwave radiation and soil moisture. Air temperature and relative humidity were measured using an HMP155A probe (Vaisala, Finland) and incoming shortwave radiation was measured using a CNR4 radiometer (Kipp and Zonen, The Netherlands). Both instruments were mounted 80-metres above ground level at the top of the Warra Flux tower. Data was processed to 30-minute averages and logged onto a CR3000 datalogger (Campbell Scientific, Logan, USA).
Soil moisture was measured by time-domain reflectometry using two CS616 soil moisture probes (Campbell Scientific, Logan, USA) each installed at a depth of 20cm. These probes were installed in two pits approximately 40m west of the tower. Soil moisture data were processed to 30-minute averages and logged onto a CR1000 datalogger (Campbell Scientific, Logan USA).
Turbulent fluxes at Warra Supersite during the November 2017 warm spell
Measurement of turbulent fluxes (carbon, water and energy) were done by eddy covariance (EC) using a closed-path infra-red gas analyser (Model EC155, Campbell Scientific Inc., Logan, USA) to measure CO2 and H2O concentrations and a 3-D sonic anemometer (Model CSAT3A, Campbell Scientific Inc, Logan, USA) to measure turbulent wind vectors and virtual air temperature. High frequency (10 Hz) measurements of turbulent fluxes were processed to 30-minute averages in a datalogger (Model CR3000, Campbell Scientific, Logan USA).
Soil heat flux (SHF) was measured to enable calculation of energy balance that was needed to partition energy fluxes into latent and sensible heat. SHF was measured using five SHF plates (Model HFP01SC, Hukseflux, Delft, The Netherlands) inserted in the soil at depth 8cm adjacent to the two pits in which the soil moisture probes were installed. Each of the five SHF plates were allocated to one of the two soil pits in a 2-3 split. Changes in soil temperature was measured by an averaging thermocouple (Model TCAV, Campbell Scientific Inc, Logan, USA) inserted into the soil above each SHF plate at depths of 2 and 6 cm. Soil moisture measurements at 20cm depth were as described previously. Heat flux, soil temperature and soil moisture data were processed to 30-minute averages on a datalogger (Model CR1000, Campbell Scientific Inc, Logan, USA)
Raw 30-minute flux and climate data were processed using the standard OzFlux QA/QC processing stream 28 using the PyFluxPro Version 0.1.1 software. At the final stage of data processing gap-filled net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data were partitioned into gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) using the u*-filtered night-time CO2 flux records to calculate ER with the SOLO artificial neural network algorithm as described in 28. The standard conventions of the global flux network were adopted in partitioning NEE as described in 29. Latent heat fluxes were converted to evapotranspiration by dividing the measured latent heat flux by the latent heat of vaporisation of water.
The full period between 10-30th November 2017 was defined as the November 2017 warm spell. The climate and fluxes measured during this period were compared with measurements of those made during the same calendar days of the preceding two years 2015 and 2016.
Data analysis
For each day of the 10-30 November period, daily sums were calculated for measurements of fluxes (carbon, water and energy) and incoming shortwave radiation (Fsd), while daily averages were calculated for air temperature, VPD and soil moisture. The significance of differences in measurements during the 10-30 November period among the three years of each variable were tested by analysis of variance. Tests were first done to confirm the data for each variable were normally distributed and between-group variances were homoscedastic. Latent heat flux was significantly skewed and non-normal due to one significant outlier (3.8 standard deviations from mean). This outlier corresponded to a day of unusually high latent heat flux and probably was due to evaporation from a wet canopy as 25 mm rainfall fell during the preceding 24 hours. Removal of this outlier corrected the non-normality. Log-transformation was used to correct skewness in the VPD data. Soil moisture data were strongly skewed, and transformation was unable to correct. For this variable, the Kruskal-Wallis method was used to test the significance of differences in medians among the three years. These analyses were repeated for the month immediately after (1st – 31st December) the heatwave period to examine the persistence of any changes in carbon fluxes once the heatwave had ended.