Table 1 summarized the descriptive statistics for daily fatalities, air pollutant concentrations and meteorological data for the period from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019. During this 2-year period, 3,371 (4.62 deaths per day), 1,799 (2.46 deaths per day), 733 (1.00 deaths per day) and 839 (1.15 deaths per day) died from RD, CLRD, ARI and other respiratory diseases in Hohhot, respectively. Approximately 53% of these cases were caused by chronic lower respiratory diseases. We found that daily death counts were higher in males than in females (RD: 62.6% males, CLRD: 63.4% males, ARI: 63.4% males, the others: 60.0% males). The elderly daily death count of RD (89.0% elderly), CLRD (91.1% elderly), ARI (88.0% elderly) and the others (85.2% elderly) were 4.11, 2.24, 0.88 and 0.98, respectively. The daily average concentrations of O3, PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 were 91.72, 36.45, 84.87, 16.08 and 38.29 µg/m3, respectively. And the average of daily temperature and relative humidity were 7.37°C and 46.50%.
Table 1
Descriptive statistics of daily mortality, air pollutant concentrations, and meteorological parameters in Hohhot, China, 2018–2019
| Mean ± SD | Min | 25th | 50th | 75th | Max |
Air pollutant concentration (µg/m3)a |
PM2.5 | 36.45 ± 28.14 | 3 | 17 | 28 | 49 | 212 |
PM10 | 84.87 ± 78.59 | 0 | 42 | 67 | 105 | 983 |
SO2 | 16.08 ± 9.80 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 21 | 72 |
NO2 | 38.29 ± 15.11 | 9 | 27 | 37 | 49 | 84 |
O3 | 91.72 ± 40.58 | 4 | 61 | 89 | 120 | 214 |
Meteorological variables |
Temperature (Temp, °C) | 7.37 ± 12.68 | -21.7 | -3.9 | 9 | 18.8 | 28.3 |
Relative humidity (RH,%) | 46.49 ± 18.66 | 11.5 | 31.73 | 44.5 | 59.3 | 96.5 |
RD |
Total | 4.62 ± 2.50 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
< 65 years old | 0.51 ± 0.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
≥ 65 years old | 4.11 ± 2.37 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
Male | 2.89 ± 1.84 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
Female | 1.73 ± 1.46 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
CLRD |
Total | 2.46 ± 1.73 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
< 65 years old | 0.22 ± 0.46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
≥ 65 years old | 2.24 ± 1.65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
Male | 1.56 ± 1.30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Female | 0.90 ± 1.01 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
ARI |
Total | 1.00 ± 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
< 65 years old | 0.12 ± 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
≥ 65 years old | 0.88 ± 0.99 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Male | 0.64 ± 0.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Female | 0.37 ± 0.63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
The others |
Total | 1.15 ± 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
< 65 years old | 0.17 ± 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
≥ 65 years old | 0.98 ± 0.98 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
Male | 0.69 ± 0.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Female | 0.46 ± 0.69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Notes: a24-hour averages for PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2; the maximal 8-h average for O3, |
SD: standard deviation; Px (xth percentiles) |
Table 2 shows that the daily average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 have a high positive correlation with each other. In contrast, the 8-hour average O3 concentration has a moderate negative correlation with the other pollutants. In addition, temperature was negatively correlated with all air pollutants except ozone (rtem−O3=0.779, P < 0.01). Relative humidity was negatively correlated with all air pollutant, though the estimates of ozone and NO2 were almost nonsignificant (P < 0.01).
Table 2
Spearman correlation coefficients between air pollutants and meteorological factors in Hohhot, China, 2018–2019
| Temperature | Relative humidity | PM2.5 | PM10 | SO2 | NO2 | O3 |
Temperature | | | | | | | |
Relative humidity | 0.110** | | | | | | |
PM2.5 | -0.409** | -0.113** | | | | | |
PM10 | -0.360** | -0.284** | 0.884** | | | | |
SO2 | -0.686** | -0.262** | 0.668** | 0.654** | | | |
NO2 | -0.372** | -0.059 | 0.711** | 0.619** | 0.669** | | |
O3 | 0.779** | -0.033 | -0.318** | -0.228** | -0.485** | -0.348** | |
**P < 0.01 |
Figure 1 presented a relatively stable seasonal trend for the daily average concentrations of O3 and the daily death counts of respiratory diseases and CLRD deaths, except for ARI and other respiratory diseases deaths. The concentrations of O3 reached their highest level during the warm season and their lowest levels during the cold season. However, daily respiratory diseases and CLRD death counts showed opposite trends, which were higher in the cold season and lower in the warm season.
Table 3 showed the estimated excess relative risks (EERs) of daily mortality at different lag days for an increase of 10 µg/m3 in the 8-hour average O3 concentration in the single pollution model. We observe that all the four daily mortality were positively associated with O3, but only respiratory disease at lag 1 and CLRD at lag 1 were tested for positive significant associations. The effects of O3 on daily mortality were highest at lag 1 for respiratory diseases (ERR: 2.125%, 95% CI: 0.478–3.799) and CLRD (ERR: 4.110%, 95% CI: 1.826–6.446), at lag 3 for ARI (ERR: 2.396%, 95% CI: -0.740–5.631), and at lag 4 for the other respiratory diseases (ERR: 2.525%, 95% CI: -0.451–5.591). Except for the other respiratory diseases, the effect of single lags was lower than the moving average lag across time. In terms of the moving averages, positive significant associations were tested for respiratory diseases at lag 01 and lag 04, CLRD at lag 01 and lag 02. Mortality rates for respiratory diseases, CLRD, ARI, and the other respiratory diseases showed the strongest estimates at lag 04, lag 01, lag 03, and lag 4, respectively. For each increase of 10 µg/m3 in 8-hour average O3 concentration, respiratory mortality at lag 04, CLRD mortality at lag 01, ARI mortality at lag 03, and the other respiratory diseases mortality at lag 4 increased by 2.815% (95%CI: 0.0752–5.630), 4.409% (95%CI: 1.577–7.320), 3.262% (95%CI: -1.342–8.081), and 2.525% (95%CI: -0.451–5.591), respectively.
Table 3
Estimated excess relative risks (ERRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of daily mortality for each increase of 10µg/m3 in O3 concentrations with different lag days in single pollutant models
Lag | Respiratory diseases | CLRD | ARI | The others |
Lag 0 | 0.933 (-0.751, 2.645) | 1.737 (-0.583, 4.111) | 0.931 (-2.260, 4.226) | -0.434 (-3.334, 2.552) |
Lag 1 | 2.125 (0.478, 3.799)* | 4.110 (1.826, 6.446)*** | 1.977 (-1.214, 5.271) | 1.272 (-1.645, 4.276) |
Lag 2 | -0.064 (-1.671, 1.568) | 0.017 (-2.164, 2.247) | 0.612 (-2.498, 3.821) | -0.849 (-3.733, 2.122) |
Lag 3 | 0.874 (-0.737, 2.511) | -0.014 (-2.185, 2.205) | 2.396 (-0.740, 5.631) | 1.272 (-1.645, 4.276) |
Lag 4 | 1.045 (-0.587, 2.704) | 0.886 (-1.336, 3.159) | -0.506 (-3.633, 2.724) | 2.525 (-0.451, 5.591) |
Lag 5 | -0.377 (-2.016, 1.289) | -0.335 (-2.560, 1.941) | -1.728 (-4.863, 1.510) | 1.480 (-1.522, 4.573) |
Lag 01 | 2.310 (0.271, 4.390)* | 4.409 (1.577, 7.320)** | 2.030 (-1.782, 5.991) | -1.646 (-5.054, 1.884) |
Lag 02 | 1.962 (-0.336,4.313) | 3.724 (0.545, 7.003)* | 2.227 (-1.972, 6.606) | -1.840 (-5.656, 2.130) |
Lag 03 | 2.333 (-0.194, 4.924) | 3.355 (-0.101, 6.930) | 3.262 (-1.342, 8.081) | -1.005 (-5.190, 3.365) |
Lag 04 | 2.815 (0.075, 5.630)* | 3.671 (-0.070, 7.552) | 2.705 (-2.183, 7.837) | 0.252 (-4.288, 5.008) |
Lag 05 | 2.515 (-0.422, 5.539) | 3.35 (-0.642, 7.503) | 1.832 (-3.228, 7.155) | 0.956 (-3.926, 6.087) |
*** P < 0.001; **P < 0.01; *P < 0.05 |
Figure 2 illustrated the effects of O3 on subjects by age and sex. Except for respiratory diseases at lag 3 and lag 5, ARI at lag 1 and lag 5, and the other respiratory diseases at lag 5, respiratory diseases, ARI, and other respiratory diseases estimates of males were higher than those for females. On the contrary, the associations of CLRD were lower for males than females. All daily mortality estimates of older adults were higher than those for < 65-year group, except for respiratory diseases at lag 3, lag 4, lag 5, CLRD at lag 3, and ARI at lag 3 and lag 5. For older adults, significant positive associations were observed for respiratory diseases and CLRD at lag 1, lag 01–lag 05.
As shown in Fig. 3, ERRs for respiratory diseases, CLRD, ARI, and the others mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase of O3 concentrations in two pollutant models and multi-pollutant models at lag 04, lag 01, lag 03, and lag 4, respectively. These effect estimates were fairly reliable and did not vary much in the size of the effect and statistical significance. The estimates for respiratory diseases and CLRD mortality were the most stable across the two and multiple pollutant models. On the contrary, the inclusion of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and all air pollutants reduced the estimates of ARI mortality. In addition, the estimates of the other respiratory diseases mortality decreased after the inclusion of PM10, and were statistically significant with the inclusion of PM2.5. By adjusting for PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2, a significant positive association between O3 and respiratory diseases/CLRD mortality remained.