Analyzing the consensus cluster based on median expression levels of m6A-related lncRNAs in patients with PTC
We firstly found that 630 lncRNAs co-expressed with 15 m6A methylation regulators and then used them to visualize a co-expression network (Supplementary Figure 1). Red nodes show the m6A RNA methylation regulators, and blue nodes display m6A-related lncRNAs.
To further investigate the relationship between lncRNAs and the PFS of patients with PTC, we found prognostic-related lncRNAs (Figure 2A, B) using the univariate COX analysis and collected 21 lncRNAs (AC010168.2, CAPN10-DT, PSMG3-AS1, AL662844.4, AC010761.3, AC093752.3, LMNTD2-AS1, AL031705.1, CD44-AS1, U73166.1, BHLHE40-AS1, MZF1-AS1, AL360181.2, AC138956.1, AL359878.1, AC002128.1, AC084125.2, AC139795.2, AC016747.3, AL355987.4, and AC138956.2) for subsequent studies.
Based on the expression of 21 m6A-related lncRNAs, the TCGA-THCA cohort was divided into distinct clusters using the “ConsensusClusterPlus” R package (Figure 2C, D, E). Regarding 2 as the consensus matrix’s k-value, the least crossover was obtained from all PTC samples. The difference in PFS was explored between two clusters using the Kaplan-Meier technique. PFS was significantly longer in cluster 1 (PFS, p = 0.005) as compared to cluster 2 (Figure 2F). After comparing the clinicopathological characteristics of two clusters and analyzing their connection, RAS, BRAF, and AJCC M stage were all significantly related to our cluster analysis (Figure 2G). The percentage of the 22 immune cell types in two clusters was analyzed using the CIBERSORT. CD8 T cells, CD4 memory actived T cells, follicular helper T cells, macrophages M1, and activated dendritic cells were significantly different between the two clusters (Figure 2H). The TME was examined using the ESTIMATE, stromal, and immune scores and found significant differences in the two groups (Figure 2I, J, K). Considering the important function of PD-L1 in tumor treatment, a correlation was observed among the PD-L1 and 21 m6A-related lncRNAs (Figure 2L) and the expression of PD-L1 between PTC samples and normal tissues in clusters 1 and 2 (Supplementary Figure 2A, B). The expression of PD-L1 was negatively correlated with 18 lncRNAs. Statistically significant changes in PD-L1 expression were observed between tumor and healthy control. However, compared to cluster 2, expression levels of PD-L1 expression were higher in cluster 1.
Identification and verification of the prognostic model of m6A-related lncRNAs
Next, the effectiveness of the prognostic model was evaluated. After randomly dividing the entire TCGA-THCA dataset into two groups (training dataset [n = 252] and testing dataset [n = 249]), a prognostic model was obtained in the training dataset using the LASSO regression analysis based on the expression of 21 lncRNAs (Supplementary Figure 3A, B). A total of three lncRNAs (PMSG3-AS1, BHLHE40-AS1, and ACO16747.3) were included in the prognostic model. The risk score of patients in the training, testing, and entire TCGA-THCA dataset were calculated by the prognostic model. The following prognostic model formula was used: risk score = (0.264992826432626*PSMG3-AS1 expression level) + (-0.777201837590316*BHLHE40-AS1 expression level) + (1.34421059388075*AC016747.3 expression level). According to the median risk score, patients in all three datasets were divided into high- and low-risk groups. The associations among the risk score, prognostic status, and expressive signatures of three m6A-related lncRNAs in the training, testing, and entire TCGA-THCA cohorts are shown (Supplementary Figure 4A-I). The PFS between the two groups was further analyzed, with significant differences, whether in the training dataset (p = 0.004, Figure 3A), the testing dataset (p = 0.001, Figure 3B), or the entire TCGA-THCA dataset (p < 0.001, Figure 3C). As shown in the time-dependent ROC curves, significant differences were found between the high- and low-risk groups. AUC analyses for 1-, 2-, 3-year PFS prediction according to the lncRNA signature were 0.747, 0.626, and 0.722 in the training dataset (Figure 3D); 0.709, 0.651, and 0.771 in the testing dataset (Figure 3E); 0.733, 0.634, and 0.739 in the entire TCGA-THCA dataset (Figure 3F). PCA and t-SNE analyses displayed that patient in the three datasets were dispersed in two methods (Figure 3G-L). Thus, the risk score is relatively accurate in determining the PFS of patients with PTC because it is greatly distinct among patients.
Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to examine the association between the risk score and PFS. A risk score was found as a risk factor for PFS in all three datasets, as demonstrated by the univariate cox analysis results (training dataset: hazard ratio [HR] = 2.767, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.891-4.050, p<0.001, Figure 3M; testing dataset: HR = 6.817, 95%CI = 2.375-19.561, p<0.001, Figure 3N; entire TCGA-TCHA dataset: HR = 3.147, 95%CI = 2.260-4.383, p<0.001, Figure 3O). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the risk score remained a significant predictor of PFS even considering the effects of the other factors (training dataset: HR = 2.849, 95%CI = 1.702-4.771, p<0.001, Figure 3P; testing dataset: HR = 40.147, 95%CI = 3.020-533.628, p=0.005, Figure 3Q; entire TCGA-THCA dataset: HR = 2.458, 95%CI = 1.593-3.794, p<0.001, Figure 3R).
Stratification analysis based on clinicopathological characteristics
The prognostic profile associated with m6A-mediated lncRNAs might be used to predict PFS in both high- and low-risk groups. A stratified analysis on clinicopathological variables showed appropriate results, including age (≤55 years vs. >55 years), gender (female vs. male), AJCC stage (stage Ⅰ + Ⅱ vs. Ⅲ + Ⅳ), AJCC T stage (T Ⅰ + Ⅱ vs. T Ⅲ + Ⅳ), AJCC M stage (M0 vs. M1), AJCC N stage (N0 vs. N1), BRAF (wild-type vs. mutated), and RAS (wild-type vs. mutated) (p < 0.05, Figure 4). The Kaplan-Meier method of survival analysis has been performed, and results have shown that the high-risk group has a shorter PFS than the low-risk group in the number of clinical strata, except for patients aged <55 years, and patients with RAS mutation (Figure 4A). This additional proof confirmed our hypothesis on its significance.
The correlation between risk score and clinicopathology characteristics, cluster analysis results, or immune scores
When comparing high- with low-risk samples from the TCGA-THCA dataset with clinicopathological factors, immune scores, and cluster analysis results, expression levels of PSMG3-AS1 and AC016747.3 were found to be higher in the high-risk group (Figure 5A), indicating high-risk lncRNAs. Conversely, the expression level of BHLHE40-AS1 in low-risk samples was higher than in high-risk samples, indicating a low-risk lncRNA. A higher-risk value can be observed in the RAS-mutated (Figure 5B), BRAF wild-type (Figure 5C), N0 (Figure 5D), age ≥55 years (Figure 5E), ImmuneScore low (Figure 5F), and cluster 2 (Figure 5G). Then, we found differences in the expression levels of 30 immune checkpoints between high- and low-risk samples (Figure 5H).
Correlation between risk score with immunocytes and tumor mutation burden and prognostic nomogram
After performing the CIBERSORT analysis, Pearson correlation was used to analyze the correlation between risk scores and 22 immune cells. A positive correlation can be observed between regulating T cells (Tregs) and risk score (Figure 6C), whereas the correlation between resting dendritic cell (Figure 6A) or resting mast cell (Figure 6B) and risk scores was negative. A positive correlation also be observed between TMB and risk score (Figure 6D). To quantitatively predict the patient’s prognosis, a nomogram was created based on clinicopathological characteristics and risk scores to accurately predict the patient’s PFS (Figure 6E).
Sensitivity analysis of chemotherapy
Two prognosis-related lncRNAs (PSMG3-AS1, BHLHE40-AS1) were found to correspond to 11 drugs (Figure 7). As the PSMG3-AS1 expression increases, the sensitivity of cancer cells to these drugs (mitomycin C, mitoxantrone, tegafur, idarubicin, gemcitabine, fulvestrant, and teniposide) increases. As the PSMG3-AS1 expression increases, the resistance of cancer cells to the drug (bosutinib) increases. The sensitivity of cancer cells to epirubicin, mitoxantrone, and doxorubicin and their resistance to allopurinol increase while increasing the BHLHE40-AS1 expression levels. Remarkably, as the expression of these two lncRNAs increases, the sensitivity of cancer cells to mitoxantrone increases (Figure 7C, H).
Prognosis-related lncRNA’s pan-cancer value promotion
We found that these three lncRNAs are differentially expressed in most tumors (Figure 8A, C, E). The results show that the overall survival rate is significantly different with the increasing PSMG3-AS1 and BHLHE40-AS1 expression levels (Figure 8B, D). A significant difference in disease-free survival rate was observed between patients with low- and high expressions of AC016747.3 (Figure 8F).