Future changes in both the mean climate of the tropical Pacific and characteristics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now established as being likely. Determining the time of emergence (ToE) of detectable climate change signals against background noise of natural variability is critical to mitigation strategies and adaptation planning. Here, we find that the annual-mean SST signal, mainly reflecting the tropical-mean warming signal, has already emerged in the historical period across much of the tropical Pacific, with the latest ToE in the east. The annual-mean rainfall signal is expected to emerge by around mid-century based on the multi-model ensemble mean (MEM) result, with some sensitivity to emission scenarios. By contrast, the signal of ENSO-related rainfall variability is projected to emerge by around 2040 ± 3 based on the MEM regardless of emission scenarios, ~ 30 years sooner than that of the ENSO-related SST variability. Our results are instructive for detection of climate change signals in the tropical Pacific and reinforce the severe risks of ENSO-induced climate extremes that are fast emerging regardless of any mitigation actions.