Economic forests provide food and timber for human society, and therefore should be managed responsibly, efficiently, and sustainably (Patil 2017). The quantity and quality of economic forests are determined by soil nutrients as well as other factors (e.g., climate) (Littke et al. 2014). Consequently, it is imperative to understand the drivers and spatial patterns of soil nutrients for the efficient and precise management of soil nutrients in these forests (Grimm et al. 2008). For example, soil nutrient mapping may be employed to identify areas where nutrients are deficient and fertilization may be required, and where nutrients are too enriched via environmental overloads, which may have negative impacts (Guan et al. 2017).
There is no consensus on the major driver of soil nutrients for economic forests. The spatial patterns of soil nutrients have been a research focus in the soil and environmental sciences (Liu et al. 2014). However, due to the high cost of sample collection and analysis, large-scale sampling to obtain the details of the distribution of soil nutrients at regional scales is difficult (Yang et al. 2016). Considerable efforts have been expended in recent years to estimate the spatial variability of soil nutrients and elucidate the causative factors involved across different regions (Wanshnong et al. 2013; Elbasiouny et al. 2014). Owing to the complexity of terrestrial ecosystems, the spatial patterns of soil nutrients vary in different regions (Roger et al. 2014; Xin et al. 2016). The spatial distribution of soil nutrients is mediated by the five state factors of soil formation, namely climate, topography, parent material, organisms, and pedogenic time (Jenny 1941). In addition, stand structure (e.g., stand age and stand density) and management measures (e.g., fertilization and weeding) of economic forests are also closely related to the spatial pattern of soil nutrients (Ronnenberg et al. 2011; Lucas-Borja et al. 2016). These factors vary across different temporal scales and regions, which together affect the spatial variability of soil nutrients (Wang et al. 2009). Consequently, the precise estimation of soil nutrient concentrations across regional scales remains a significant challenge (Wang et al. 2018).
Geostatistical methods have been developed to predict the spatial variability of soil nutrients, with the objective of utilizing quantified soil properties at a given time and place to predict soil variables at unknown locations (Saito et al. 2005). The promotion of precision forestry and advances in the integration of geostatistical and geographic information systems (GIS) have further evolved the prediction of regional soil nutrients (Lacoste et al. 2014). However, further study is still required to identify the relative importance of different factors and the main controlling factors that affect the spatial variability of soil nutrients. The ensemble approaches of machine learning methods can also be used for the prediction of soil nutrients. Random forest can generate abundant data, which includes information of variable importance and critical variables that control changes in soil nutrients (Liaw et al. 2002). Random forest has proven to be an effective method for predicting the spatial distribution characteristics and changes in soil organic carbon. This information can be employed to model the soil organic carbon data for each depth interval, to facilitate the comparison of vertical and lateral distribution patterns (Grimm et al. 2008; Heung et al. 2014; Zhu et al. 2018).
Hickory (Carya cathayensis Sarg) is an elite subtropical nut and oil tree that is native to China, whose nuts are popular due to their high nutritional value, good taste and unique flavor (Wu et al. 2019). Zhejiang Province accounts for more than 70% of the total production of hickory in China, with a total planting area of 86,700 hm2. In the main producing area of Lin 'an, hickory accounts for more than 70% of the total income of farmers; thus, it is one of the main economic trees that allows farmers to significantly enrich their quality of life. The hickory plantation is restricted by the topographic conditions, with different management methods, and there are also some unmanaged phenomena. To meet the increasing demands for hickory while maximizing its economic benefits, it is of particular importance to select areas that are highly suitable for its growth (Shen et al. 2016).
There is universally agreed that the potential impact on the spatial patterns of soil nutrients needs to be included in biotic factors (e.g., stand density and stand age), abiotic factors (e.g., climate and topography), and management factors (e.g., fertilization and weeding). Here, we aim to improve our understanding of the variation and the driving factors of the spatial patterns of soil nutrients. Moreover, we hypothesize that the spatial variation of soil nutrients is mainly determined by the climatic factors. Consequently, it is necessary to fully investigate the spatial patterns of soil nutrients in the main producing areas of hickory so as to master the relationships between impact factors and soil nutrients. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to: 1) identify the controlling factors that drive the spatial distribution of soil nutrients. 2) predict and map the spatial distribution of soil nutrients in hickory plantations.