From 31st March to 5th July 2020, a total of 2183 COVID-19 patients were admitted under Medicine department. Three hundred and ninety seven had persistent hypoxia (defined as saturation 94% or less on supplemental Oxygen of 15 L per minute through non-rebreathing mask or PaO2/FiO2 ratio of less than 200); of them 128 died within 24 hours of admission and were not included in the study. A total of 269 patients with persistent hypoxia were included in the study. One fifty one received single intravenous infusion of tocilizumab 400mg and 118 who did not, were historic controls.
Their characteristics are shown in table 1. Tocilizumab group was younger (53 years v/s 55 years), but had lower mean Oxygen saturation of 86 % (82-92%) v/s 91% (88-93%) in the control group. In tocilizumab group 63.6 % had at least one co-morbidity and 36.4% were without any co-morbidity, where as in the control group 74.6% had at least one co-morbidity and 25.4% were without any comorbidity. Tocilizumab group had more patients with obesity and less proportion of patients with hypertension than the control group.
Non invasive ventilation was used in 56/151 patients from tocilizumab group (15 of them later required invasive ventilation) but in none from control group (as a rule, it was avoided initially due to fear of aerosolization with increased risk to health care workers). Overall, 30 patients required invasive ventilation (22 from tocilizumab group and 8 from control group). Inotropic support was required in 11 patients from tocilizumab group and 7 patients from control group. In tocilizumab group, 79 out of 151 died (52.3 % mortality) and in control group 74 out of 118 died (62.7%). Figure 1 depicts effect of tocilizumab on overall survival. (The median survival in the tocilizumab group was significantly longer than in the control group; 18 days (95% CI: 11.3 to 24.7) versus 9 days (95% CI: 5.7 to 12.3); log rank p 0.007). From tocilizumab group 72 out of 151 patients (47.7%) were discharged, whereas from the control group 44 out of 118 (37.3%) were discharged. Tocilizumab was well tolerated and no adverse drug reactions were noted.
Table 2 shows comparison of the demographic and laboratory parameters in ‘overall’ survived versus non-survived groups (including both control and tocilizumab groups). Those who survived were significantly younger (52 v/s 55 years, p= 0.029) and had significantly higher Oxygen saturation (91% v/s 88%, p= 0.002) , lower respiratory rate (30 v/s 36 breaths per min, p=0.001) and lower serum creatinine (1mg/dl v/s 1.3mg/dl, p=0.001). The higher average serum creatinine in the non-survived group probably reflected some degree of hypotension with prerenal element.
Our patients, on the whole, did not have significant leucopenia (white blood cells less than 4000), lymphopenia or thrombocytopenia.
D-dimer level was higher in the ‘not-survived’ group, ( mean 1411 / ml, range of 1000-5000 / ml) than in those who survived ( mean 1000 / ml, range of 1000-1927 / ml), but the difference was not statistically significant (P 0.079).
Total 38 radiological scans (High Resolution CT chest: 26, CT-Pulmonary Angiography: 9, CT-brain: 3) were done in 28 out of 151 patients receiving Tocilizumab. Of these 28 patients, 21 were not on any form of advanced respiratory support at any time. Seven patients had radiological scans done early in the disease and ultimately required advanced respiratory support (HFNC/ NIV/ ventilator). Only 7 out of 68 patients who were on advanced respiratory support (HFNC/ NIV/ Ventilator) had radiological scans done before getting switched to the same. In the 28 patients with radio-imaging available 11 patients expired and 17 were discharged. The CT severity scores were similar in the two groups (median of 21 versus 24; p value of 0.343). The median CORAD score was also 6 in both groups (p 1.000).
Table 3 depicts univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Data on CRP, SGOT, SGPT, LDH, IL-6, WBC and differential count, platelet count, ferritin and d-dimer was not available in all patients in the control group. Data on respiratory rate was available only for 142 patients and d-dimer data was available for 78 patients. Hence these parameters were not included in the multivariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, ‘older age’ was not detected to be a risk factor for death. Survival was not different in those with or without any co-morbidity.
The independent predictors of survival were use of tocilizumab (HR 0.621, 95% CI 0.427-0.903, P 0.013) , higher oxygen saturation (HR 0.969, 95% CI 0.950-0.989, p 0.002) and use of invasive ventilation (HR 2.31, 95% CI: 1.442-3.701, p 0.001) on multivariate analysis.
Table 4 depicts comparison of the characteristics of the patients who survived ( N=72) versus those who did not (N=79), in the tocilizumab group. Tocilizumab was administered on 2nd to 5th day of admission (average 3rd day) in both groups. Those who ‘survived’ had higher Oxygen saturation than ‘non-survived group’ ( mean 88% with a range of 85-93% v/s mean 85% and range of 79-90%- p=0.014) and were less tachypnic than ‘non-survived group’(respiratory rate 30 v/s 36 breaths per min, p=0.002),at the time of enrolment for tocilizumab. Obesity and raised serum creatinine, on the other hand, had adverse effect on survival, p=0.039 and 0.001 respectively. Blood levels of inflammatory markers were comparable in both groups. D-dimer was higher in those who did not survive than in those who survived, but the difference was not statistically significant. Proportion of patients who required invasive ventilation was significantly more amongst patients who died as compared to those who survived (26.6% versus 1.4%, p 0.001).