3.1 Patient characteristics
Based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 10006 patients were included in our study, of which 3791(37.9%) patients underwent CPM while 6215(62.1%) patients did not undergo contralateral prophylactic mastectomy(no-CPM). Most variables showed a significant difference between the two groups(p<0.05), except for laterality and radiotherapy(p>0.05). Compared with those patients who did not receive CPM, patients in the CPM group were more <60 years old (90.2% vs 62.0%), more white race (80.2% vs 67.9%), more married (65.2% vs 52.4%), and more patients underwent total mastectomy (65.0% vs 49.4%). There was little difference in proportion distribution among other variables. After PSM, a total of 3039 pairs of cases were matched. We analyzed the baseline data of each subgroup and found that there was no significant statistical difference between these two groups besides the N stage. Table 1 summarizes the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients in both groups before and after PSM.
3.2 Survival analysis of all population
The median follow-up time was 34.5months (IQR 1–83 months). 860(14.1%) patients died from breast cancer specifically, 378 (12.4%) in the CPM group and 482(15.8%) in the no-CPM group. The estimated 5-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) rates for patients in the CPM group and no- CPM group were 81.96% and 78.71%, the 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 80.10% and 75.05%, respectively. The Kaplan Meier analysis revealed that patients who underwent CPM had better survival than the patients in the no-CPM group in both BCSS and OS (both log-rank p < 0.005, Fig.2). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were estimated to investigate the effect of risk factors on BCSS and OS.
In the univariate analysis of BCSS, all factors were associated with BCSS in TNBC patients compared with each reference group, with the exclusion of laterality(P>0.05). All relevant factors were integrated into the multivariate Cox regression analysis of BCSS. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that patients of grade IV, more advanced T stage(T3-T4), stage N3, tumor size>50mm and more regional nodes positive resulted in an adverse survival outcome of TNBC (HR>1, P<0.05). CPM, other races, chemotherapy, and midlife (40-59 years old) were protective factors for women with TNBC (HR<1, P<0.05). The results of the multivariate analysis were shown in Table 2.
The univariate Cox regression analysis of overall survival (OS) indicated laterality and radiotherapy were not significantly associated with OS. According to previous clinical experience, radiotherapy was one of the conventional treatment protocols for TNBC, so radiotherapy was also included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Results showed that unmarried, grade IV, more advanced T stage(T3-T4), stage N3, larger tumors, and more regional nodes positive were proved to be positively associated with breast cancer-specific mortality (HR>1, P<0.05). Patients in CPM, chemotherapy, midlife (40-59 years old), and the other race (American Indian/AK Native, Asian/Pacific Islander) group experience better survival (HR<1, P<0.05). CPM was shown to be the factor associated with improved cancer outcomes in both univariate and multivariate analysis of OS (univariate analysis: HR=0.78, CI= 0.69-0.88, P<0.001, and multivariate analysis: HR=0.74, CI= 0.66-0.84, P<0.001), detailed in Table 3.
In conclusion, these analyses suggested that TNBC patients undergoing radical mastectomy or total mastectomy could benefit from CPM and chemotherapy. K-M survival curve for BCSS and OS was shown in Fig. 2.
3.3 Subgroup analysis
The baseline of stage N remained unbalanced after propensity score matching (Table 1), therefore stage N may be a potential confounder and was included in the subgroup analysis. According to the results of BCSS and OS multivariate Cox survival analysis, the N stage was divided into N0-N2 group and N3 group because there was no significant difference between N1 - N2 patients and N0 patients (log-rank P>0.05). K-M survival curves (Fig.3 and Fig.4) showed that stage N0-N2 patients in the CPM group had superior BCSS and OS than those in the no-CPM group (log-rank P<0.05), while stage N3 patients in both groups did not derive survival benefit from CPM (log-rank P>0.05).
The subgroup analyses were illustrated by forest plots of HRs, which revealed that factors positively associated with the prognosis of TNBC patients included CPM, chemotherapy, and middle age (40-59 years old). These two forest plots also more visualize that higher tumor stage (stage T3-T4 and N3), larger tumor tissue (tumor size >50mm), and more regional positive lymph nodes were risk factors for TNBC patients. (Fig.5 and Fig.6 ).